May we, one and all, officially rejoice: the threat of preseason tragedy to our favorite players, our Fantasy rosters, and our plans for contented weekend football viewing has all come to an end. As of last night, the NFL preseason is mercifully concluded.
2024’s preseason generated a lot of intrigue as August slogged on. Everyone at the water cooler knows about that Caleb Williams off-time, off-platform throw to fellow rookie Rome Odunze on the left sideline. Jayden Daniels’s ADP has skyrocketed, as it’s clear he’s set to make waves in Washington. We also managed to get some clarity on the Steelers’s quarterback situation, so at least there’s that.
All to say: the past four weeks have yielded enough material developments on NFL rosters that futures odds on both team and player performance both have shifted on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at a couple of the biggest movers and evaluate.
Caleb Williams to win MVP (+4500; was +7500 before preseason ended)
Let’s start with the most obvious, and the biggest pleasant splash of the preseason: your No. 1-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Caleb Williams.
Undeniably, Williams was a hoot to watch in preseason. His line was not overly impressive (10-20 passing; 170 yards; two carries for 20 yards; one rushing TD on a scramble play). Most of that came from his Week 2 preseason game, in which he showed savviness in the pocket, mobility, off-platform accuracy, and a pleasant rapport with Rome Odunze.
But, let’s be clear—there are just too many fixtures atop the MVP race for Caleb to supplant for this to be any real value. If I had to be totally honest, I’m a bit nervous that these odds received a bit of the media-hype shift. Did anyone else watch NFL talking-head television after Caleb’s preseason Week 2? It was as if he’d won a gold medal in the Paris olympics all the way from Soldier Field.
We’re all looking for something shiny, fresh, and new to be excited about, especially during the sports dead zone that is July/August. But I’d caution you to remember: Legendary Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown is the only rookie to ever win MVP, and that was in 1957.
The Bears might make the playoffs, and Caleb (with +135 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win ROTY) is certainly the favorite to make the most impact as a rookie in 2024. But an MVP is a fool’s hope, especially now that his odds have made him more favored to win one.
I still like the following more than Caleb to win MVP, even at his former +7500 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook: Patrick Mahomes (+475), Jalen Hurts (+1400), and Matthew Stafford (+3000).
Garrett Wilson to win OPOY (+3000; was +6000 before preseason ended)
And to think: most of this shift is because he didn’t play a down! Indeed, it would appear Garrett Wilson resting himself for the preseason has made us all a bit more confident that he’ll be start-to-finish elite in 2024. Enough to win this award, though?
Absolutely. I sure hope you were one of the folks who got in on this future at +6000 on DraftKings Sportsbook, because I think Wilson’s chances to finish as the NFL’s best wide receiver are better than this price. Everyone’s focus is on their trepidation about Aaron Rodgers, and they’ve taken their eye off the Wilson ball.
I wrote about Wilson’s 2023 advanced air yards metrics in my Fantasy football strategy: Drafting value wide receivers column for DraftKings Network last week. Check it out for the full analysis, but here’s a tidbit as to why I think Wilson is undervalued, even at his astronomic draft price:
It would come as little surprise to many of us if Wilson’s air yard stats last year were unimpressive, what with the disastrous and dizzying quarterback carousel in New York. And yet, despite all the dysfunction, he still finished the 2023 season as the tenth-best wide receiver when it comes to air yards, with a total of 1,716.
All this suggests that even with a replacement-level quarterback, Wilson last year would have been significantly more productive than his WR26 finish. Wilson’s RecYOE figure at that ranking is a staggering -136 (eighth-worst in the NFL). This means he was expected to end the year with 136 more receiving yards than he actually did. All this during a year when he somehow still managed to clear the 1,000-yard mark.
I’m not sure I exactly buy into just how diametrically his odds shifted because of his preseason absence, but I’d still be hammering this bet. Wilson is as ultra-talented as they come.
Sure, there’s Tyreek Hill (+700 on DraftKings Sportsbook), Christian McCaffery (+850), CeeDee Lamb (+1000) to beat, but, again, I think Wilson, with a full season of a healthy Rodgers (fingers crossed!), could finish 2024 as the best overall wide receiver.
Slam this future.
Bo Nix to win OROY (+1000; was +3500 before preseason ended)
The value was certainly highest before the Broncos announced Bo Nix would be their starting quarterback. But did the announcement really make any waves? Did any of us actually expect Zach Wilson to beat him out for the starting job?
I sure didn’t. That’s why I’m not entirely sure there’s a ton of heat on this value, now. And yet, I still like it. I followed Nix through his storied (and long! very, very long) college career, and I know well enough not to bet against him. I think he and Caleb Williams are both going to be neck-and-neck for this award.
Both have fairly readymade rosters. Both are mavericks at the position. And, in Nix’s case, he probably hasn’t yet shed his college football mentality of everything to prove, nothing to lose.
All to say: I hope you got in on this future at its value price, but I still like the +1000 for this. I wouldn’t take Nix, here, for any less.
Head to DraftKings Sportsbook for any and all NFL future bets, and make sure to take a long look at the above three.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
