The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Drive the Green [$50K to 1st]
The Field
This is the final event of the 2024 PGA TOUR season. The field is only 30 golfers and is comprised of the top-30 players from the FedEx Cup point standings. This week, there is a game within the game. While the old version of the TOUR Championship used to simply operate like a regular tournament with FedEx Cup positions changing throughout the week, the new format is quite different. A player’s starting “score” will be determined by their FedEx Cup position. The winner after 72 holes of play will then not only win the tournament but also win the FedEx Cup (and the $15 million prize).
The starting positions for this week’s field can be found here. The field will be 30 players (no alternates). Note for DraftKings scoring purposes: starting strokes will be incorporated in the fantasy points awarded for the finishing position.
The main injury concern for now is Hideki Matsuyama, who withdrew last week with lower back issues. However, Matsuyama is in the field and expected to play, but has elevated risk this week. Stay tuned to DKLive for any breaking field updates this week.
The Course
East Lake Golf Club—Atlanta, Georgia
Par 71 , 7490 yards; Greens: Bermuda
East Lake Golf Club is a Donald Ross design that underwent extensive renovations last off-season.
The venue was lengthed in spots and the par-4 14th was changed into a par 5 and lengthened considerably. The par-4 8th was turned into a drivable 4 (and shortened) while the par-3 9th hole, which was already a long shot over water, was lengthened and will play at 250+ yards.
The course had yielded winning scores in the -8 to -13 range for the most part over the last decade or so. In 2019, Rory McIlroy shot 13-under-par over four days to win—his final score was 18-under-par starting at 5-under (under the new FedEx playing format). In 2020, Dustin Johnson won at 21-under-par but started the event at 10-under. So, he effectively shot 11-under for the week. Last year, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele both shot 19-under-par and perhaps exposed some of East Lake’s weaknesses, which makes the changes for 2024 all the more timely.
Driving accuracy at East Lake used to be about 10% lower than the PGA TOUR average, while the average driving distance for the week was also about 10% higher. I’d expect driver usage to remain fairly heavy, but with the fairways having been widened in spots, it may increase driving accuracy numbers and make aggression off the tee a more favorable strategy.
Additionally, while some of the greens have been modeled after their original design and made larger and more open, the new green structures are also likely to be firm and make around-the-green play more difficult.
For statistical purposes, players with higher ball flights who can hold greens at a high rate (high GIR %’s) should benefit from the changes. Solid around-the-green play also seems likely to be rewarded as the new venue should be challenging for all players as any past experience will essentially be thrown out the window this year.
Despite East Lake featuring traditional rough, bunkers, and water areas (that come into play on eight holes) I’d still make Pinehurst #2 as a somewhat comparable venue. Pinehurst is another Donald Ross-designed course that was renovated 10+ years ago to its original design, and made more open and inviting off the tee. The fairways and greens were opened up and players were given more room to manoeuver onto very tricky and firm greens. It’s not a one-for-one comparison, but the changes at East Lake sound very similar to what occurred at Pinehurst.
Additionally, when we look at Pinehurst’s leaderboard from last June’s US Open (Rory McIlroy 2nd, Patrick Cantlay 3rd, Xander Schauffele 7th) we see three former East Lake winners. For stats, I’d emphasize great tee-to-green players first and foremost, but also give extra emphasis to any power players coming in with solid recent form off the tee. I expect we’ll see a firm, longer golf course that may not play quite as tough as a US Open setting, but may tend to benefit those who traditionally do their best work around those styles of courses.
2024 Weather Outlook: As you’d expect this time of year, the weather in Atlanta is going to include a lot of heat. Highs are set to be in the mid 90F range all week with humidity high as well. That should make this event somewhat tougher for the players who will be navigating a firm and fast golf course, with new greens that will likely not be very receptive to begin with. The wind this week doesn’t look like it will be a factor at all, but there may be some thunderstorms on Saturday that could halt play, and potentially soften the course a little. But other than that, look for the weather to only add a layer of toughness this week. Highball flights and players who can hold greens should be prioritized.
Last Five Winners
2023 – Viktor Hovland -27 — started at 8-under-par (over Xander Schauffele -22)
2022 – Rory McIlroy -21 — started at 4-under-par (over Scottie Scheffler and Sungjae Im -20)
2021 – Patrick Cantlay -21 — started at 10-under-par (over Jon Rahm -20)
2020 – Dustin Johnson -21 — started at 10-under-par (over Justin Thomas -18)
2019 – Rory McIlroy -18 — started at 5-under-par (over Xander Schauffele -14)
Winning Trends
- Nobody from a starting position of -1 or even has ever finished the week inside the top five
- From 2019 to 2022, at least one player from the -2 starting position (T16) ended up inside the top five (handicap format)
- The worst the leader (-10) has finished in 4yrs was T3 in 2019
- In the last 3 yrs, the leader (-10) has finished on top or within a shot of the eventual winner
- The second-place starter (-8) has only finished inside the top 5 ONCE in 4 years
- The top 3 has included at least one player who started between -2 to -4 every single yr (since 2019)
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023: Viktor Hovland (27-under — started at 8-under for the week)
SG: OTT 4.8
SG: APP 4.8
SG: TTG 2.0
SG: ATG 1.1
SG: PUTT 3.4
- We are dealing with a new course this year, but Hovland’s exemplary ball striking from last year still gives us a good clue as to what is needed for success around East Lake, which features lots of difficult approaches and even harder to hit greens in 2024
- The last five winners of this event have now all gained 2.0 strokes or more OTT
- Scrambling around these tricky green complexes is tough as the field averaged about a 2-3% lower up-and-down rate than the PGA TOUR average. I expect the gap between East Lake and the PGA TOUR average may be even later in 2024.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Wyndham Clark +4000 and $8,100
Comparables:
- Viktor Hovland +6000 and $8,300
- Sam Burns +4000 and $8,500
odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Horses for Courses
1. Rory McIlroy ($10,800; best finishes: win-2016, 2019, 2022): McIlroy has now won this event three times, coming back from a five-stroke starting deficit in 2019 and a six-stroke deficit in 2022. He’s also landed two other finishes of T7 and T2 at East Lake since 2014. After a slow start to the playoffs, McIlroy comes in off a T11 finish at the BMW and will start in T6 at -4, the same position he won from in 2022.
2. Xander Schauffele ($12,300; best finishes: win-2017, 2nd-2019): Schauffele won at East Lake on his first visit back in 2017 when he was still a rookie. In 2019, he finished solo second, and he again rallied to finish in a group at T2 in 2020. Now in his eighth full season on the PGA TOUR, he’ll again go hunting for a win at East Lake. Schauffele will start at 8-under-par but has outplayed No. 1 seed Scottie Scheffler over the past couple of months.
3. Justin Thomas ($6,800; best finishes: T3-2019, 2nd-2017): Thomas has come close to winning at East Lake on multiple occasions. He finished T2 back in 2017 before the event switched to a handicap start and has finished inside the top seven at this event in seven of his eight career appearances. He’ll start at even par this week but could be a player with lots of upside potential for DFS.
Recent Form
1. Xander Schauffele ($11,000; T5-T2-win): Scauffele followed up a T2 finish at the St. Jude with a T5 at the BMW. While he may not have had enough gas in the tank to finish the job at the BMW, he certainly looks primed for a big week at East Lake and will be a hard man to run down.
2. Sam Burns ($8,500; T2-T6): Burns was my feature pick last week and didn’t disappoint. He’s trending well with his irons and has putted well on multiple surfaces. The lure of the big payday aside, he’s overdue for a breakout win.
3. Adam Scott ($7,900; 2nd-T10-T18): Scott managed to turn back the clock yet again last week, earning a trip to East Lake with a 2nd-place finish. He’s finished 2nd in two of his last four starts heading into East Lake.
DraftKings DFS Strategy
Cash Games: Stick with Schauffele (again)
Last week, I made the recommendation here to stick with the cheaper Xander Schauffele ($11,000) over Scottie Scheffler ($12,200) due to the large price difference. Scheffler has made it known he doesn’t care for this new format and even with all the money at stake, he’s been outplayed by Schauffele in the first two events. Below these two, Sam Burns ($8,500) is another player I’d want as part of any core or cash game lineups this week. His putter is working and he finished T9 at Pinehurst last week, which is probably the best comparable we have in terms of Donald Ross designs to the newly renovated East Lake. A little further down, Shane Lowry’s ($7,300) salary looks enticing given how strong the Irishman’s tee-to-green game can and has been this summer.
Tournaments: Fleetwood could shock
We have never had a player from a 1-under par (or anywhere worse than 4-under par) starting position win this event, but if anyone could pull off the impossible this season, it would be Fleetwood. He’s had a wonderful season despite the lack of wins and heads into this year’s season finale off a T5 at the BMW Championship. I think he’s heading for a big week soon, and if it comes this week, he could push for a shocking top-5 finish. I also like the chances this week for Chris Kirk ($6,300) to make a move. He starts at even par, but has some decent finishes at other Donald Ross courses including a T26 at the US Open this year. He finished T9 last week and has been solid around the greens of late.
MY PICK: Hideki Matsuyama ($10,100)
Outside of his Masters win in 2021, Matsuyama’s biggest win remains a WGC victory from back in 2017. I’m hoping that changes this week as he embarks on his 11th trip to East Lake for the Tour Championship. The 32-year-old is coming off a slightly shocking withdrawal from the BMW where he shot an impressive five-under opening round before deciding to call it a week, citing lower back pain.
Matsuyama obviously comes with some heightened risk this week as a result, but it’s also possible the rest will give him an advantage over the field, who just spent four days at altitude battling it out on an 8,100+ yard golf course. Matsuyama is also just two weeks removed from gaining 8.2 strokes putting on Bermuda greens at TPC Southwind, where he also had his elite approach game dialed in (+5.2 APP). He’s had plenty of success playing Donald Ross-designed venues in the past and is fresh off a 6th place finish at the US Open in June, where he gained 5.0 strokes around-the-green.
I think East Lake may play quite a bit tougher this year and somewhat similar to TPC Southwind, with its new/firm greens and the heat expected for the week. If so, I think this would likely tip the scales back in Matuyama’s favor, who has the best around the game on the PGA TOUR. As the third most expensive player, he also shouldn’t be too highly owned for DFS purposes, especially coming off the withdrawal. For betting, he’s +1200 on the DraftKings Sportsbook to win outright, which is 5x times bigger than the No. 2 seed, Xander Schauffele.
MY SLEEPER: Tommy Fleetwood ($7,600)
I’m going to resist getting overly fancy with my sleeper pick this week. Fleetwood comes in as just the 22nd seed this week and will start nine shots back of Scheffler at -1. However, the Englishman has played some terrific golf towards the end of the year and feels like a player who could make a serious run towards the top five by Sunday.
Fleetwood started his playoffs with just a T22 at the St. Jude but showcased some great ball-striking, gaining 8.3 strokes OTT + APP for the week there. He rectified his putting woes at Castle Pines last week, gaining 1.4 strokes on the greens, and was able to climb into a T6 finish on Sunday.
This year will be his third time playing East Lake and he’s shown some promise at the course, finishing T6 at this venue last year, an event where he shot nine under par over the final two rounds of play. At $7,600, he’s more expensive than the other names starting at -1 this week, but also feels like the player with the upside for GPPs. For betting, the +800/+200 available for a Top 5/10 finish also stands out as a potential way to get exposure to him on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $300K Drive the Green [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
