Week 0 is in the books and college football season is underway. The slate was a bit lackluster on paper, with four games and four double-digit spreads. But we wound up getting some exciting games, as underdogs had a chance to win three of the games. Dog wound up going just 1-3, with Georgia Tech over Florida State the lone upset in Ireland. The dogs still barked, though, going 4-0 ATS, and covering by a wild number of nearly 16.4 points per game on average. So with some results in the book, what’s the impact on DraftKings Sportsbook?
Here are some Week 0 results that most impacted Week 1 spreads.
Nevada +15.5 to +8 at Troy
The Wolfpack were a 28-point dog at home against SMU on Saturday evening, and probably should’ve won the game outright. There were some questionable calls on both sides, but ultimately a long Mustang touchdown with about 90 seconds to go was the difference in a 29-24 game. Nevada got solid QB play, ran the ball well, and looked much better than expected on defense against a high-powered offense like SMU.
The market initially took notice, moving Nevada from a 15.5-point dog to a 12-point dog off the performance. But bettors have taken this and run with it, hammering the Wolfpack. As of Monday afternoon, 30% of the wagers for 84% of the money are on Nevada, moving the number down as low as Troy -8. Nevada may be better than expected, but SMU really looked dreadful in that opener. I’d lean towards buying low on Troy here at -8, Nevada’s near win shouldn’t be worth a touchdown move on a line after just one game.
Georgia Tech from -18.5 to -22 vs. Georgia State
The Yellow Jackets got the big win of the week, taking down an FSU team that was the favorite to win the ACC, and had a win total set at 9.5. Georgia Tech had a very good showing at the line of scrimmage, running the ball well and stuffing the Seminoles run game on big plays. It was definitely encouraging to see, and GT very well may be better than we expected them to be. However, this is a very difficult spot that the Yellow Jackets find themselves in Week 1.
We’ll get to FSU below, but off the Ireland trip, the Seminoles have two extra days off this week to play on Monday. Georgia Tech doesn’t have that luxury, playing on Saturday yet again. That’s a quick turnaround after spending all summer prepping for a top-10 FSU team, upsetting them, traveling home internationally, and then spending your week getting ready for … Georgia State?
This has letdown spot written all over it, while the Panthers have spent all summer getting ready for their first game — one they can get up for against Tech. Bettors are well aware of the spot, with 36% of the bets for 70% of the money as of Monday afternoon. I lean towards backing Georgia State here, simply because of how dreadful the spot is for GT. But looking into the Panthers, it should be a rough year for them. Not much experience on Georgia State’s side, which is why they were picked last by many in their division. This is a plug your nose spot if you can stomach taking the 22 points.
Florida State from -22 to -17 vs. Boston College
I’m fortunate to have a BC +21.5 ticket in my pocket from over the summer. I had this spot circled as a tough spot for FSU, and it will be. However, the surprising outright loss to Georgia Tech will have some bettors backing a bounce-back spot from the Seminoles as a discounted price. That move hasn’t happened yet, though. Plenty of time till kickoff on Labor Day for the FSU money to come in, but so far it’s still all BC — 67% of the bets for 85% of the money on the Eagles.
I’m anticipating FSU money, but this is the game that I’m not taking the discounted side. I’m sticking with BC here, and a lot of it is because I think a lot of the concerns we saw from FSU are real. The QB play from the Seminoles was dreadful. DJ Uiagalelei is on his third school and has been unimpressive at each stop. To be honest, I think BC might have a QB advantage in this game with Thomas Castellanos at the helm.
Of course, FSU has other edges all over the field, but not as exaggerated as we initially thought. The FSU line play on on both sides of the ball was much very poor. The Seminoles probably do bounce-back with a win at home, but they have to hit the reset button and get ready for a BC squad that can give them a game. The Eagles have had plenty of time to prep for this one.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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