In the aftermath of one of the greatest dynasties in sports histories, the New England Patriots are still searching for their footing as the organization moves in a new direction.
They are coming off a 4-13 season, which marks their fewest wins since 1992. One of the biggest changes across the NFL occurred this offseason, as legendary coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots went their separate ways. The 24 years he spent as head coach marks the 4th-longest tenure in NFL history. Jerod Mayo was hired as the new head coach, and has humongous shoes he will attempt to fill.
This season, the Patriots are tied with the 2nd-worst odds of all teams to win it all at +25000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They are tied for the worst odds to win the AFC at +12000, hold +2500 odds to win the AFC East, and are +900 to make the playoffs outright. New England’s season-long win total sits at 4.5 games with the under favored by -135 odds.
Fewest Regular Season Wins (+320)
To put it nicely, this will be a year of transition for the Patriots.
The franchise has yet to name a starting quarterback and lacks the necessary talent at several other positions. New England spent the third overall pick on Drake Maye this year, but Jacoby Brissett has remained in the mix throughout training camp. Signs seem to be pointing toward Brissett getting the first chance as the starter before passing the torch to Maye when he is ready.
The weapons that either quarterback will have to work with also will not strike fear into opponents’ hearts. Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, and Ja’Lynn Polk are set to be the top targets this year. Rhamondre Stevenson will continue to operate as the lead running back but took a step back last year in production. In the 12 games he was healthy, Stevenson tallied just 619 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Looking across the rest of the NFL, the 4.5 win total number held by the Patriots is the lowest number on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos are the next closest at 5.5 games and there are four teams with the number set at 6.5.
Despite their poor record last year, the Patriots have a difficult schedule this year. They will have to face their AFC East divisional opponents twice, with the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins each holding -155 odds or better to make the playoffs. In addition, New England will face the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, and Los Angeles Rams.
There are many concerns within this Patriots team, and few paths for them to secure victories. Rather than wagering on their specific win total, taking the +320 swing on the Patriots to end up with the worst record holds some intriguing value.
Last Team to be Winless (+500)
The Patriots’ difficult schedule will be seen right out of the gate this year. They start the season against the Cincinnati Bengals which they enter as +9 underdogs and +340 on the moneyline. New England will then face the Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans.
In all likelihood, the Patriots will start the year 0-6.
Looking beyond this, New England will face the Jaguars and then the Jets again. Their clearest opportunity for a victory doesn’t come until Week 9 against the Titans and this is no guarantee either. They then will play the Bears, Rams, Dolphins, Colts, Cardinals, Bills, Chargers, and conclude with their second matchup with the Bills.
This murderers row of matchups to kick off the season is enough to make this bet worth taking a chance on. While there are other teams around the NFL that will struggle out of the gates, the confidence in the 0-6 start from New England makes this worth it. Unless the franchise is able to get quarterback player well above expectations, don’t expect the Patriots to be making many headlines this year and fade them accordingly.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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