The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this season as one of the biggest mysteries across the NFL.
They have gone 9-8 the past two seasons but missed out on the playoffs last year. While many teams would still love to be in their current position, it was disappointing not to see Jacksonville take a step forward.
This is especially concerning considering the momentum that was lost. In 2022, the Jaguars won the AFC South and produced a historic playoff victory to overcome the 27-0 deficit to the Chargers and still get the victory. Trevor Lawrence finished the year 7th in MVP voting and looked back on track to be the cornerstone player he was expected to be. Lawrence and the team took a step back in each of these areas last season.
Heading into the 3rd season with Doug Pederson in charge and 4th season with Trevor Lawrence as the starting quarterback, it feels the organization is at a bit of a tipping point. Lawrence has not consistently been the surefire franchise quarterback he was labeled as, even if the lack of results cannot fully be blamed on him. He will be under the microscope this season more than has properly been acknowledged and there could be some change coming in Jacksonville if things go south.
As a team, the Jaguars enter this season tied for the 18th-best odds to win it all at +5000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They hold the 10th-best odds to win the AFC at +2500, +250 odds to win the AFC South, and +130 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Jaguars’ season-long win total is 8.5 games, and the odds are -110 in both directions.
Under 7.5 Wins (+165)
If you want to take the traditional over/under at 8.5 for additional security, you won’t hear an argument from me. However, there is additional value on the board using the alternate line to drop it down to 7.5.
While there is room for skepticism across the team overall, the schedule is the driving force of this pick. Jacksonville opens the season on the road against Miami. They then return home to play Cleveland before traveling to Buffalo and Houston. They will also play the Eagles, Lions, Packers, Bears, and Jets. The Colts are also an interesting team heading into the season, whom the Jaguars will have to face twice.
Simply put, there is not much room for error on their schedule, and the Jaguars have to capitalize on all winnable matchups. Looking at the offseason moves, there aren’t many reasons to believe Jacksonville will take a step forward.
Adding Arik Armstrong and drafting Maason Smith will hopefully improve the defense. This is coming off a season in which they produced a below-average defense. Jacksonville allowed the 17th-most points per game, the 22nd-most yards allowed, ranked 23rd in score percentage allowed, and was in the bottom 10 in most pass defense metrics.
Jacksonville will need to produce points to overcome this, and there is even more reason for concern here. Doug Pederson has continually hitched his wagon to Press Taylor dating back to their time in Philadelphia. The offensive coordinator has failed to adequately game plan and simply isn’t the level of play caller a true contender requires. While you cannot dispute the Super Bowl ring on Pederson’s finger, that 2018 season is also the only season he has led a team to double-digit wins.
The production is directly tied to the offense’s play call and game plan, but Lawrence showed signs of regression last year as well. The 24-year-old took a slight step back in touchdown production and saw his interceptions balloon up to 14 after throwing just eight the previous year. He also registered a career-high sack rate last year and has fumbled the ball 12 times in back-to-back seasons.
There are too many areas of concern within this Jaguars team to feel confident in them to produce regularly. With the tough schedule out of the gate, there is especially concern they will self-implode. Jacksonville is not as complete as the other contenders they must compete with and will take a step back this year.
Expect them to fall short of the 7.5 win margin and be forced to make some hard decisions heading into next year.
Travis Etienne Jr: Over 925.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
If you do want a positive spin to look for in Jacksonville, buy some Travis Etienne Jr stock. The third-year running back has eclipsed 1000 yards on the ground and 1400 yards from scrimmage in both seasons he has been in the NFL thus far.
Tank Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson are solid backup options, but neither player tallied more than 50 carries last year. Etienne Jr will receive one of the more lopsided backfield splits of any backfield this year. His 267 carries last season ranked 4th in the entire NFL. His ability as a pass-cater makes the Clemson product a three-down weapon that the team utilizes often. Etienne Jr should be expected to receive a similar opportunity this season.
The combination of talent and opportunity skews in Etienne’s favor, and expect him to clear the 925.5 rushing-yard margin for the third consecutive season in his career.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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