The Carolina Panthers finished last season with an NFL-worst 2-15 record. However, they did not receive the benefit of number one pick in the draft.
That’s because Carolina made their all-in push for their franchise quarterback last year when they traded four draft picks and wideout DJ Moore to the Bears for the number-one pick in order to draft Bryce Young. There will likely always be some unfortunate connection between Panthers QB Bryce Young and this year’s top selection Caleb Williams, especially due to the struggles the Alabama product had in his rookie year.
Whether or not Young can take a leap this season will dictate the Panthers’s ceiling.
Currently, Carolina enters this season tied for the second-worst odds to win it all at +25000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They hold the worst odds to win the NFC at +1200, +1100 odds to win the NFC South, and +550 odds to make the playoffs outright. The Jaguars’ season-long win total is 5.5 games, and the over favored at -115 odds.
Adam Thielen Over 550.5 Recieving Yards (-110)
Adam Thielen has quietly been one of the more productive wide receivers across the entire NFL throughout his 10-year career. The 34-year-old has recorded 7,696 receiving yards and 59 touchdowns overall.
Thielen has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in three different seasons and exceeded 550.5 receiving yards in seven of the last eight years. Even with the uneasy quarterback play, Thielen is coming off a really solid season. In 2023 he tallied 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns.
The biggest concern for a possible dip in production this year is the Panthers’ addition of Diontae Johnson. The former Steelers standout has eclipsed 1000 receiving yards in his career before and had at least 680 yards every season of his career.
However, there will be enough targets to go around, and seeing the line at 550.5 receiving yards for Thielen is too low not to jump on. The veteran has a proven track record of production and this number leaves a comfortable margin to take a step back and still have success. The opportunity will be there for Thielen to receive in the ballpark of 100 targets and this should be enough for him to eclipse the total set.
Bryce Young Over 10.5 Interceptions (+100)
The rookie season for Bryce Young went about as bad as it possibly could have. The number one overall pick had a 59.8% completion percentage and threw for 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, and ten interceptions.
Beyond just the raw numbers, Young ranked 31st among quarterbacks in EPA per play and success rate. The 5.5 yards per pass attempt were also the lowest among qualified quarterbacks, yet he still had an NFL-worst 15.3% of his passes charted as inaccurate. Only Sam Howell took more hits and was sacked more often than Young.
To put it in historical context, there have been 63 qualified rookie quarterbacks to be charted based on EPA per play and success rate since 2000. Young ranked 61st in EPA per play and 54th in success rate among these names. Josh Rosen and Jimmy Clausen were the only two quarterbacks to produce a worse EPA per play.
The Panthers have made their investment in Young and will be forced to let him play through the growing pains. Part of this is going to have to be opening up the playbook some more and unleashing some downfield attacks.
It is not best for Young’s development or the success of the team to continue operating so close to the line of scrimmage. As things open up, so do the chances for more interceptions.
While ultimately Young should be expected to perform better than he did last season, he can still be counted on for 11+ interceptions. Last year, there were 12 different quarterbacks to eclipse this number across the NFL.
The Panthers need to find out exactly what they have in their former top pick and get Young back to looking like the franchise quarterback he was expected to be. But this will not be a linear path. Feel confident in taking the over 10.5 interceptions.
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