The WNBA playoff race continues to heat up with two Eastern Conference teams at the forefront: the Chicago Sky and Atlanta Dream.
With an 11-17 record, the Sky hold the eight seed in the WNBA playoff picture, leading the ninth-ranked Dream by only one game. There is plenty of regular season basketball left to be played by both teams, but perhaps no game more important than the Sept. 17 matchup between these two squads right before the postseason. A lot could be determined by that outing, especially considering the Sky hold a 2-1 lead in the season series.
Below, is a look at my top bets for WNBA futures involving postseason odds, along with analysis based on recent trends and player strength.
Chicago Sky favored to make the playoffs
The Sky have a challenging remaining schedule, but with Reese anchoring their efforts, Chicago is favored to maintain its position and qualify for the postseason. Chicago’s upcoming home games against formidable opponents like the Las Vegas Aces, Washington Mystics, and Indiana Fever could impact the odds and change how the playoff race is viewed.
With the Sky holding the high ground in this postseason battle currently, they are favored with -280 odds to qualify for the postseason on DraftKings Sportsbook. Conversely, there are +210 odds Chicago fails to reach the playoffs.
Right now, the Sky’s focus is clearly on the development of rookies Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. The team honored a trade request from Marina Mabrey by moving her to the Connecticut Sun, depleting the win-now potential of this group. There is still plenty of talent, including leading-scorer Chennedy Carter in the backcourt, but regardless, the league’s lowest volume three-point shooting team lost an integral threat from beyond the arc. For reference, Chicago shoots on average 4.3-of-14.2 (30.2%) from deep and not only takes the fewest perimeter attempts on average, but is the only team to average fewer than five made three-pointers.
Some of the Sky’s underwhelming shooting results gets overlooked due to dynamic offensive rebounding results. No team pulls down more offensive rebounds per game (11.5) than Chicago, led by Reese, who holds +1000 odds to win WNBA Rookie of the Year on DraftKings Sportsbook. She recently became the first WNBA player to record at least 20 rebounds in consecutive games, while leading the WNBA with 12.6 rebounds per game. Her back-to-back 20-rebound performances, which included 13 points and 20 rebounds against the Sun and 19 points and 20 rebounds against the Phoenix Mercury, have solidified her status as a cornerstone of the Sky’s playoff push.
As the Sky navigate the final stretch of the regular season, Reese’s contributions will be pivotal. She is averaging 12.6 rebounds and 13.6 points per game and has already notched 21 double-doubles this season. With 12 games left, she is just one double-double away from tying Tina Charles’ rookie record of 22 set in 2010.
Cardoso continues to reach impressive heights as well, scoring a career-high 18 points on 9-of-11 shooting with six rebounds against the Sun. Chicago has seen plenty of potential from its frontcourt duo, both defensively, and through Cardoso’s continued growth offensively.
Entering Sunday’s matchup against the Aces, Chicago has lost three of its previous four games. Meanwhile, the Dream has won three of its last four. The gap has narrowed to the point that this is a tight race that requires attention, and poses opportunity for bettors.
Can the Atlanta Dream pull off a late-season rally?
Lately, the Dream has managed to execute at a high level defensively, producing a 94.6 defensive rating over its previous four games, trailing only the New York Liberty during this span. With Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Tina Charles continuing to set the tone, there is some top-level talent that could offer reason for optimism on the surface. If Atlanta can maintain this level of play, the standings could flip soon.
The Dream has plenty of work to do in order to surpass the Sky in the standings, but it’s not far out of reach by any means. Atlanta faces +210 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to reach the postseason with -280 odds to fail to do so.
Charles, who recently became the second-highest scorer in WNBA history, provides a clear advantage in the experience department when stacking up these two teams. She overtook Hall of Famer Tina Thompson during the Dream’s 72-63 victory over the Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night. She then sealed the milestone with a three-pointer in the fourth quarter, bringing her career total to 7,482 points.
Atlanta isn’t particularly great at any major area and on the season, there hasn’t been a less efficient offense in the league. The 0.852 points per possession this group produces ranks 12th, narrowly behind the Los Angeles Sparks (0.857) and the Sky (0.86). With an inefficient offense that has post-ups account for more of its approach than any other WNBA team, is a poor shooting group, and has solid, but not a dominant go-to threat to set the tone in pick-and-roll or isolation in an increasingly perimeter oriented league, there is a lot left to be desired.
While the Dream has defended well lately, this is group hasn’t provided great results overall on the season. This is a team that will need to be effective enough defensively to overshadow its underwhelming offense.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is grant-afseth) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
