The Miami Dolphins took another stride forward last season. Their 11-6 record was the most wins tallied as a franchise since 2008. This success has not translated to the postseason, as the Dolphins were first-round exits again last year, putting even more pressure heading into the 2024 season.
There was plenty of production from the Dolphins offense last year. The team produced the second-most points per game, most yards, and ranked third in score percentage. Tua Tagovailoa led the entire NFL in passing yards last year with 4,624, and Tyreek Hill led all receivers with 1,799 yards through the air. Most of the same core is returning from last year and will be looking to continue to build off the success they have had.
Overall, the Dolphins enter this season with the 12th-best odds to win it all at +2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They are tied for the seventh-best odds to win the AFC at +1200 and are -155 to make the playoffs outright. Miami’s season-long win total sits at 9.5 games with the over favored by -135 odds.
Dolphins Over 9.5 Wins (-135 Odds)
There will be plenty of competition in the AFC East this year. The New York Jets have climbed to the favorites to win the division with +165 odds. The Buffalo Bills trail shortly behind at +195, with the Miami Dolphins holding +205 odds.
In all likelihood, the Dolphins’ path to the playoffs will be through the Wild Card. With this considered, they cannot afford to take any game off and must capitalize on non-divisional games.
Luckily, the path for Miami to do this is there. Some of their top opportunities to win outside the division include games against the Jaguars, Titans, Seahawks, Colts, Cardinals, Rams, Raiders, Packers, and Browns. They also will have two games against the Patriots which should lead to a pair of wins. While the Bills and Jets are good, the Dolphins belong on the field with both teams and have a chance to at least split or perhaps better in these matchups.
The Dolphins have too much talent not to be in the playoff mix. Last year there were 12 teams in the NFL to finish with 10 or more wins. It is not quite a fair comparison to use this number for this season, but it is reasonable to think the Dolphins are one of the 12 best teams in the league.
While their defense might take a step back, with the loss of DT Christian Wilkins being more notable than has been acknowledged, the offense is so dynamic and provides a high floor for how effective the team will be.
There are too many weapons on this offense for it not to remain among the top three in the NFL. All notable players are returning from last year and Mike McDaniel should only be expected to add layers to the offense in his third season at the helm. Expect the Dolphins to reach double-digit wins again and clear the over 9.5 wins again this season.
Tyreek Hill Over 1375.5 Receiving Yards (+105 Odds)
Tyreek Hill set the bar extremely high for himself after leading the NFL with 1799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Luckily, the DraftKings bar over/under for season-long receiving is set lower than this at 1375.5 receiving yards on the season.
Hill has an impressive track record for remaining healthy in his career. The eight-time Pro Bowl WR has played 15 or more games in seven of his eight seasons and still logged 12 in the lone season he did not clear this number.
As far as his production, Hill has tallied 1,710 and 1,799 receiving yards in his two seasons under Mike McDaniel. He has received 170 and 171 targets in these two seasons and is not expected to receive any different opportunity this season.
The case for taking the under would be that this is too large of a number to believe is repeatable. But, you cannot teach talent and Hill has plenty of this. Pairing this with the diverse ways that McDaniel can get the ball in Hill’s hands, he feels about as sure of a bet to produce every week.
The number may look intimidating, but bank on talent and expect Hill to continue adding to his Hall of Fame career and eclipse 1375.5 receiving yards once again.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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