The Cleveland Browns quietly had a really impressive season last year. They finished the season with an 11-6 record. The franchise also tallied 11 wins in 2020 but otherwise has not had a winning season since 2007.
Cleveland will be looking to build off their playoff appearance last year and hope to get Deshaun Watson back to looking like the quarterback they paid him to be. While he was better last year than in 2022, Watson still has a long way to go before reaching expectations. He has suited up for just six games in each of the two seasons in Cleveland.
Overall, the Browns enter this season with the 14th-best odds to win it all at +4000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They are tied for the eight-best odds to win the NFC at +2200 and are +145 to make the playoffs outright. Cleveland’s season-long win total sits at 8.5 games with the over favored by -135 odds.
Deshaun Watson Under 3,300.5 Passing Yards (-120)
It has been a rapid fall from grace for Deshaun Watson. With the off-field issues completely aside, Watson has straight-up been a bad quarterback of late.
Since being traded to the Browns, Watson has suited up for just 12 total games. Over that period of time, he has thrown for 2,217 yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He also has been sacked 37 times, and made more questionable decisions than he has been punished for.
While the Browns still went 5-1 in the games Watson played last year, the team played their best football with Joe Flacco under center. Overall, they leaned on their defense which held opponents to the fewest total yards, fewest first downs, and the best scoring percentage in the NFL.
The injury risk is a legitimate factor in this bet. Waston missed the final eight games last season due to season-ending shoulder surgery on his throwing arm. While he is not expected to be limited this year, Watson has already reported soreness this preseason.
When has has played, Watson has vastly underwhelmed. According to Pro Football Focus, the three-time Pro Bowl QB had a career-worst 20.6% bad throw percentage in 2023. He also has yet to eclipse 300 yards passing in any game in a Browns uniform.
In his early years with the Texans, Watson looked on the pathway to being among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks for a long time. So far with the Browns, he has yet to show any signs of looking like the same player.
The Browns have higher expectations than they have in years. Jameis Winston will be quietly looking over his shoulder as the backup this season. Winston has successfully re-defined his career and has a strong case for being the best backup quarterback in the league this year.
There are too many variables that can lead to Deshaun Watson coming up short. With all the risk involved, expect Watson to come up short and take the under of 3,300.5 passing yards this season.
DraftKings Drive for Week 5 – 3 Wins After 5 Game (+200)
One difficult hurdle the Browns face this year is their strength of schedule. Looking at last year’s record, the Browns will face the toughest opposing schedule of any team in the NFL. Opposing teams recorded a 158-131 record last season which comes out to a 54.7% win rate. The Ravens, Bengals, and Steelers each are difficult matchups in the AFC West whom they will face twice each. That reality annually inflates this number.
Despite this, the Browns have a great chance to get off to a hot start this year. They open the season against the Dallas Cowboys. They then will face the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders.
The Cowboys will be a difficult task in the opening week and the Jaguars also are no pushover. But even if the Browns are to drop the first two games, they should fare well against the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders.
The Giants and Commanders have even larger questions at quarterback with Daniel Jones and rookie Jayden Daniels. The Raiders know exactly what they have in Gardner Minshew, but if the Browns play their best football they should be able to secure the victory.
How the Browns fare throughout the season is to be determined. But they have a great chance to get off to a hot start and produce a 3-2 record through the first five weeks. Getting the +200 value is worth taking a swing on the Browns.
Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
