Sometimes one selection can make or break a fantasy football season. Just as getting that late-round steal who exceeds expectations can win you the league, an early-round misstep can lose it.
Most of the time, this occurs due to injury. However, every year some players simply don’t reach the expectations that had been set going into the season.
While these names may not be that dramatic, here are a few top players whose average draft position is too high for the production that should be expected on the field.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley has been a can’t-miss fantasy football target for just about the entirety of his NFL career. Outside of the injuries that have kept him sidelined, Barkley has been incredibly effective on the field.
Currently, Barkley is being drafted as the fourth running back off the board with an overall ADP of 10.5. While there is no doubt that Barkley will still be a productive fantasy football player, there will be better options on the board at this stage of the draft.
Barkley comes from a Giants team in which he was just about the only offensive option to an Eagles team loaded with weapons. While he is a caliber of talent the Eagles have not had in quite some time, Philadelphia also generally doesn’t lean on just one running back. Expect Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Will Shipley will also be in the mix.
In addition, Jalen Hurts will likely remain the top option at the goal line for the Eagles. Hurts has tallied at least 10 rushing touchdowns in each of the last three seasons and 15 just last year. This also goes without mentioning the injury risk that Barkely carries on a year-by-year basis. He has played 16 games just twice in his six-year career.
There will be enough touches to go around and Barkely is too talented to be a non-factor. But there are a few options that are in better positions to produce at the spot he is being selected.
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua was one of the biggest surprises of last year’s NFL season. The rookie standout tallied 105 receptions for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns last season.
This impressive production has propelled Nacua to being drafted as the eighth wide receiver in 2024 and an overall ADP of 14.5. While Nacua should still be expected to be a contributor this season, some of last year’s production was inflated due to necessity. Cooper Kupp played in just 12 games and recorded 59 receptions which is his fewest since 2018. Don’t forget that it was only two seasons ago when Kupp secured the triple crown by leading the NFL with 145 receptions, 1,947 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns.
Based on where he is being drafted, taking Nacua means passing up on other wide receiver options like Marvin Harrison, Jr., Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, and several other notable names. Some sort of sophomore slump is to be expected for Nacua even if it is set to have more to do with Kupp’s return and available receptions than his own struggles.
Don’t cross Nacua off your board completely, but tread carefully and keep an eye on what other options are on the board at this point.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Another rookie standout, Jahmyr Gibbs tallied 1,261 yards from scrimmage and 11 total touchdowns last year. The former 12th overall pick will look to take another step forward this year.
The fantasy football rankings expect this, as Gibbs is currently being drafted as the sixth running back off the board and has an ADP of 11.5 overall. Even with all the success that he had last year, Gibbs finished as the tenth-ranked fantasy running back and 44th in scoring overall.
The biggest concern with Gibbs will be opportunity. David Montgomery remains the backup running back and will be in the mix for carries again this season. While Gibbs has established himself as the better passing down back, Montgomery led the team in carries last year with 219 compared to the 182 Gibbs received.
When making this type of early-round commitment to a player, it isn’t great to have so much competition for carries. Gibbs is set to have another really good season and has a chance to take a step forward. But a first-round price point is large for the 22-year-old.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Heading into his fourth year with the Houston Texans, Nico Collins will be looking to continue his upward trajectory. The Michigan product took a massive step forward last year. Collins tallied 80 receptions for 1,297 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
Currently, Collins is being drafted as the 14th wide receiver and holds an overall ADP of 30. With C.J. Stroud taking the offense to a new level, the Texans took a significant step forward and produced a 10-7 record last year.
As a team, the Texans will be looking to improve once again this year. But expect a bit of regression from Collins in terms of production. The biggest splash by the team this offseason was the addition of Stefon Diggs. It should also be noted that Tank Dell missed some time last year, suiting up for just 11 games. All three of these wide receivers are being drafted within the top-29 receivers and the top-68 players overall.
Simply put, Collins may not receive quite the same opportunity that was the case last year. While this is a huge benefit for the Texans overall, it is not something that helps fantasy football owners.
There is still plenty of room opportunity for all three players to have their impactful weeks. But taking such a high pick on a player who realistically could end up third in receiving on his own team on any given week is a big risk.
Temper your expectations for each of the Texans’s pass catchers and keep your eyes out for players set to receive more clear opportunities.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
