Have a hunch on a conference that you feel will exceed expectations this season in College Football? This is the market for you. Pretty cool and unique market up on DraftKings Sportsbook that gives bettors the ability to wager on over/under options for how many teams out of the four major conferences will reach the new 12-team 2024 College Football Playoff.
Before we breakdown the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC below, it’s important to know the format. One “Group of 5” team is going to make the field this season from a non-power conference. While the field is wide open, Liberty (+400) and Boise State (+400) are tied for the shortest shot to make the CFP from that group.
There’s also Notre Dame lurking. The Irish are an Independent , so would not represent a conference in the CFP. That said, Notre Dame (-160) is favored to make the field, with the fifth shortest odds on the board. Penciling the Irish into the field is probably the safe move before betting this market, so let’s assume there are 10 remaining spots open for the major conferences. You could always try to bet contrarian and place a wager on the chance ND misses the postseason, but you can simply bet that outcome on its own at +125 without getting too cute.
ACC CFP Teams: OVER 1.5 (-120)/UNDER 1.5 (-110)
The ACC is an interesting market for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it’s the only conference that is priced right around a pick’em for the set number, indicating a rough coin flip of getting one team versus multiple teams in. It’s also one of two conferences that does not have a team that you have to lay juice on to reach the field — Florida State (+140) is the favorite in the ACC. But things are tight, with Clemson (+190) and Miami (+220) priced just behind the Seminoles.
The betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook are decisive on this one, though. Bettors have taken the position that we will see multiple teams from the ACC in the field, meaning a team that does not win the conference title will get a bid. As of August 22, 65% of the bets for 86% of the money are on O1.5, which has moved the price off the opener just a bit. That leaves just 14% of the money, despite 35% of the bets, on just one ACC squad to reach the CFP.
The ACC is wide open this season, and could even see a long shot come through in the conference. The ACC just may beat itself up too much to see multiple teams come through. I’d lean with the money that poured in that we do somehow see two teams get in, but I’m not strong enough on it to wager.
Big 12 CFP Teams: OVER 1.5 (+110)/UNDER 1.5 (-140)
I happen to like the Big 12 this season, but with Texas and Oklahoma departing for the SEC, there’s no doubt the conference is weaker. Still, a group of former PAC-12 teams enter the mix, including Utah (+200) which is the favorite in the Big 12, and the shortest shot to make the CFP. Kansas State (+250) is just behind Utah to make the CFP in terms of odds, followed by Kansas (+600), Oklahoma State (+650) and Arizona (+750).
Yet, the odds on the market still tell us that DraftKings Sportsbook expects to see just one team in the field. While the public believes we will see multiple bids here with 72% of the bets on the over, it accounts for just 33% of the handle (as of August 22). That leaves sharper bettors on the under, making up for just 28% of the bets, but a whopping 67% of the money.
If the best regular season team wins the championship here, we probably just see one team in the field. But there’s still a scenario that we see two get in. Just for example, let’s say Utah goes 11-1, but then losses the Big 12 Championship Game to 9-3 Oklahoma State. It would then be tough to see Utah being left out.
Big Ten CFP Teams: OVER 3.5 (+155)/UNDER 3.5 (-190)
The Big Ten market represents the most lopsided number of the options to bet. Setting it at 2.5 would be an easy over, as Ohio State (-650), Oregon (-300) and Penn State (-140) are all odds-on-favorites to be in the field. If you think one of those squads is a bust, it’s an easy under at 3.5. But assuming they all get there, the questions becomes this — is there another team that can get in the field?
The defending champion Wolverines (+140) could be in the mix. But Michigan has seen its win total plummet, and over 90% of the money in the YES/NO market is on Michigan to miss the CFP. That’s where there’s a big drop off to a team like Iowa (+600). I love the Hawkeyes this season, and would rather bet them at 6-1 than Michigan at the current prices. But it’s still a tall order to ask for Iowa in the field.
I’d fire on the under here if you can stomach laying -190, although I do hope I’m wrong and we see a big season out of Iowa. Sharper bettors seem to agree, as 32% of the tickets for 75% of the handle have come in on the under (as of August 22).
SEC CFP Teams: OVER 4.5 (+125)/UNDER 4.5 (-155)
We close with the mighty SEC, which could hold the key to everything. At first glance, 4.5 seems like a monster number, and you may be drawn to the under. But if each of the other conferences stay under their total, or if Notre Dame misses the CFP, the SEC could easily get five teams. The conference has four favorites to reach the field in Georgia (-600), Texas (-230), Ole Miss (-130) and Alabama (-110). It also has some short plus-money plays in LSU (+120), Tennessee (+170), Missouri (+175) and Texas A&M (+220). That’s a lot of teams in the mix, and there’s a realistic shot that five of those teams will win 10 games. Would the committee leave out a 10-win SEC team for a 10-win ACC team? That seems unlikely.
Public bettors are following suit on the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, with 76% of the tickets on that side. However, the 24% of the bets on the over at plus-money makeup 42% of the handle. I’m not sure I’ll come around on betting this market, but if there’s a plus-money wager on the board I would take, this would be the one.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
