You cannot win an entire fantasy football draft with the number one overall pick, but you certainly can lose it.
There is a great deal of pressure in making the first selection to build the foundation of your team and set the tone for the entire league. Having to wait for other league mates to make two selections in a snake draft before the choice gets back to you makes it especially important to get the top pick right.
While there is a fairly universal outlook for the best option with the top pick this year, let’s take a deeper dive into the decision and see which other players have a case.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Nearly all signs point toward Christian McCaffrey being the first name off the board in most fantasy football drafts.
The 49ers star ranked 3rd in total fantasy football points scored last year trailing only Josh Allen and CeeDee Lamb. In his first full season with the 49ers, he led the NFL in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, total touches, and combined rushing and receiving touchdowns.
McCaffrey also ranked 7th in total fantasy points in 2022, 1st in 2019, and 3rd in 2018 based on DraftKings scoring. The three-time Pro Bowl running back played just 10 combined games in 2020 and 2021 but was still productive when he was on the field.
McCaffrey has no competition when it comes to his combination of talent and opportunity. The 28-year-old is coming off the best year of his career with 1,459 rushing yards, 14 rushing touchdowns, 564 receiving yards, and seven receiving touchdowns. The 49ers will be looking to finally get over the championship hump this season and McCaffrey is sure to be a key part of it.
The biggest concern with McCaffrey is health. The superstar suffered a calf strain during training camp which has kept him off the field for the past few weeks. While he has set his sights on suiting up for Week 1, this is not the ideal way to start the season.
This is especially the case considering his injury history and the fact that calf injuries can linger. The updates surrounding McCaffrey have been positive and he is expected to receive a normal workload starting Week 1, but this is still something to monitor. If he does underperform this season it will almost certainly be due to injury.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
In comes CeeDee Lamb as the next highest-rated fantasy football player based on average draft position. The Cowboys star ranked second among all NFL players in fantasy points scored last season with 429.2, which falls 0.4 points behind Josh Allen for the top spot.
Lamb finished the year third in Offensive Player of the Year voting, led the NFL in receptions, and ranked 2nd in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Overall he tallied 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Unfortunately, much of the attention surrounding Lamb this offseason was due to a contract dispute. Both himself and quarterback Dak Prescott have failed to sign their desired extensions with the season right around the corner. Lamb continues holding out away from the team until a new deal is signed and the back-and-forth has not been overly promising.
Assuming he does return to the field and suit up as normal, Lamb is the unquestioned top target in Dallas. He has shown some impressive chemistry with Dak Prescott and belongs in the conversation regarding the most talented players at his position.
While the contractual situation is more than just a footnote, there is little doubt about the opportunity Lamb will have on the field when he returns.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The only player with more receiving yards than CeeDee Lamb was Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins star also tied with Mike Evans for the most touchdowns in the NFL with 13 last year. Overall, he came in 4th in scoring last season and will be entering his third season with Miami.
What Hill does have on his side is the lack of injury concern and drama surrounding him. Hill has been an active participant in training camp from the start and has played at least 12 games in every season of his career. He has tallied 16 or more games in each of the past three seasons and five of his eight seasons overall.
If there is any point of concern with Hill, it’s that he’s hit his ceiling already. The Dolphins have some advanced schemes in which they rotate wide receivers often. There also is concern with Tua Tagovailoa not being able to take another step forward after leading the league in passing last year.
Simply put, Tyreek Hill is the most sure bet out of the available options but likely has lower upside than the players above him.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Breece Hall has a dark horse case for the top overall fantasy draft pick. The third-year running back is coming off a season in which he tallied 1,585 yards from the scrimmage line and nine touchdowns while enduring some of the worst quarterback play in the league.
Aaron Rodgers remains the X-factor for how good this Jets team can be. If you are a believer in Hall, you are buying into the fact that Rodgers can keep the defense honest and spread the ball around to get everyone involved.
Hall is a dynamic running back who can effectively catch it out of the backfield and surely has his best football still ahead of him. On paper, the Jets look like a deep playoff threat and he is sure to be a significant part of their offense. For a team that scored just 18 offensive touchdowns last year, Hall alone was responsible for half of these.
The Decision
There are inherent risks with each one of these options. Christian McCaffrey is still the most surefire bet to be the right choice with the number one pick.
The injury concern is fair, but everybody has some degree of injury risk. McCaffery’s dynamic ability as both a rusher and a pass-catcher gives him the edge over the other candidates. He will have a chance to chase his own records with the 49ers this year and you shouldn’t put a ceiling on how good he can be just yet.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
