A fantasy football breakout is often in the eye of the beholder. It seems so much of the discourse around these picks is a game of semantics. “Well, didn’t Player X already break out?” So, with that in mind, let’s set some ground rules about what constitutes a breakout.
A breakout is when a player’s average draft position value is far exceeded. So, a Tier 6 player leaps to produce like a Tier 2 player. A breakout is more than just a sleeper. A breakout can be a sleeper, but a sleeper can’t be a breakout. So if the RB25 on draft day finishes as the RB17, that’s a sleeper, not a breakout. If the still unproven, but hyped-up QB8, who has never finished as a top-five quarterback, ends up being the third-highest scoring quarterback, that’s a breakout.
Anyway, enough with the explanations. Let’s proceed with the fantasy football breakouts!
Fantasy Football Breakouts
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
The easy comparison with Anthony Richardson is Cam Newton. The 2022 first-rounder is a tall, well-built, athletic quarterback with a big arm and the size to absorb contact and even deliver punishment in the red zone. I’m going way out on a limb here in saying Richardson could easily score 20+ rushing touchdowns. Even with Jonathan Taylor lining up behind him, this duo could easily combine for 2,000+ yards and 25 TDs.
Due to injuries, Richardson was limited to a small sample size last year, but the little we saw was tantalizing. The arm talent is massive. His running ability to convert first downs when a play breaks down was often effortless. The hype for Richardson is off the charts.
Unfortunately, a lot of the conversations about Richardson tend to focus on whether or not he can stay healthy. That’s bad karma. The injury bug can come for any player. Don’t try to predict injuries.
What is most important is what a player can do on the field. Does Richardson’s game still need refinement when working in the pocket? Is he a half-beat too quick to tuck it and run? Will there be growing pains? The answer is yes. Colts head coach Shane Steichen is working out those issues with him. The 39-year-old coach was the offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles when Jalen Hurts enjoyed his 2022 breakout season.
The term you’ll often hear about Richardson is that he’s high-risk, high-reward. No, he is high-reward, period. When Justin Fields was a starting quarterback, he finished as the QB6 that season. Sure, he lost his job because the Bears weren’t winning. But we don’t need Richardson to be good at football in real life. We aren’t worried about his ability to win football games. We need him to exist as the big, tough, athletically gifted, impossible to defend in the red-zone quarterback anybody can see when they look at him.
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Playing behind Najee Harris on the depth chart has led to Jaylen Warren only seeing table scraps for touches. Up to this point, Warren has been a nice fill-in or a flex play when the matchup was right. With the arrival of Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, a coach known for dynamic and a run-first mentality, Warren and his three-down skill set will blossom.
Last year, he averaged +1.4 rushing yards over expected per carry (RYOE/carry), second-most among running backs, behind only Christian McCaffrey and just ahead of De’Von Achane, another popular 2024 breakout candidate.
Not only will the former Oklahoma State back contribute as a runner, but he also has great hands. He hauled in 61 catches for 370 yards last year. With Smith’s fresh set of eyes and unconventional methods, this backfield could be more split or even favor Warren over Harris.
The latest news on Warren’s hamstring injury, which he suffered in Pittsburgh’s second preseason game, sounds promising. It’s not considered a concern for their Week 1 opener against the Atlanta Falcons.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
What makes Patrick Mahomes really special, and I mean really special, is that when we think of his style of play, it’s wide open. We can see him in our minds, making big throws and deep throws. But what stuck out about his play last season was his ability to take what defenses gave him underneath. In fact, Mahomes averaged a career-low in almost every advanced metric because he was dinking and dunking.
Mahomes averaged an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.5. Among quarterbacks with 2,000 or more air yards, the two-time Super Bowl MVP ranked dead last in the NFL. This means every quarterback in the game was throwing it deeper per play on average. The best arm in the league had his biggest asset taken away, and the Chiefs still won the Super Bowl. Incredible. This two-high safety revolution defenses are using en masse these last couple of seasons is all in response to Mahomes’ ability to stretch defenses.
Given the player personnel moves made by the Chiefs this offseason, it’s clear that they want to open it up. Last year, they definitely wanted to work in the short areas of the field, knowing defenses were taking away the deep ball, which is why they drafted Rashee Rice and added Kadarius Toney. While Toney didn’t pan out, he was supposed to be their YAC machine, as Rice turned out to be.
By signing Hollywood Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy, the fastest player drafted into the league in many years, Kansas City wants to open it up. The problem with deep-speed receivers is that their production is wildly inconsistent. One week, they’re limited to two catches for 20 yards. The next week, they connect on a couple of deep passes for five catches, 140 yards and two touchdowns. Look for Andy Reid to be very creative getting Worthy chances to work the route tree. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce will create distractions over the middle of the field to open up the big play for the rookie.