It’s Wednesday. We’re halfway through the week. However, we are well past the halfway point for the MLB season. Division races are tightening. The Wild Card is getting wild. We’re a month away from Autumn, people. It’s time to lock in.
Still, let’s not look past tonight. There’s thousands of bets available on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are two that I’m circling.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Phillies ML (-110)
You have to give the Braves credit. Few teams have dealt with Atlanta’s level of injury in 2024, and yet, here we are, with the team 7-3 in its last 10 games and currently sitting in a playoff spot. At the same time, the Phillies have been the superior club all season long and this feels like a very nice price for them on the moneyline.
Let’s focus in on the pitching matchup — where I believe Philadelphia has the largest advantage on Wednesday. Max Fried simply has not looked sharp since returning from an IL stint, posting a 7.90 ERA with an inflated 16.2% walk rate in his last three starts. It’s not like Fried had been a fan of facing the Phillies prior to his injury, either. The left-hander has seen Philadelphia twice in 2024. He’s thrown a combined 6.2 innings and surrendered eight earned runs. Woof.
On the other side, we find the king of consistency: Aaron Nola. The veteran’s strikeout numbers are down slightly in his 10th MLB campaign, but Nola’s remained effective, registering a 3.45 ERA and a 3.84 SIERA across 154.0 innings of work. The Braves’ bats are always dangerous, though I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little underwhelmed by their projected lineup for this evening. With Austin Riley (hand) joining a lengthy IL list and Jorge Soler (hamstring) not expected back until later this week, Nola should have no issue going deep into this tilt.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100)
The Diamondbacks haven’t been anything special on the run line this season, entering tonight’s action with a 64-63 record. However, this particular matchup appears to be prime for a lopsided Arizona victory.
The presence of Roddery Munoz can not be overstated. The RHP has struggled throughout 2024, as evidenced by his nasty 6.72 FIP across 78.0 innings, yet things have been especially dark so far in August. Munoz has started three games and allowed 14 opponent runs (11 earned). In that same span, opposing hitters are slashing .333/.403/.593 off of the 24-year-old. Essentially, every batter Munoz has faced the past three weeks hits like Juan Soto.
To be fair, this season hasn’t gone much better for Jordan Montgomery, who comes into Wednesday with his own hideous set of statistics. However, the southpaw has looked slightly better in recent months, possessing a solid 4.04 FIP dating back to June 11. In general, a .349 BABIP and a 63.0% strand rate have also done Montgomery no favors. Still, if there were a perfect matchup for Montgomery, it might just be this Marlins squad. Miami has not hit LHPs well at all in 2024, ranking 28th in ISO (.119) and 29th in wRC+ (75) within the split.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
