The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs begins this Thursday, with 50 players taking part in the no-cut event that will decide the final 30-man field of the season. The BMW Championship takes place this year at Castle Pines, an 8,130-yard Par 72 that is played at 6,400 feet of altitude.
It’s safe to say that this course will be one of the more interesting ones we’ve on TOUR in quite some time. While the course is long, the elevation will likely reduce the actual yardage by about 10%. Some players will be hitting 400+ drives on the regular and hitting wedges from as far as 170 yards. That’s going to make the long course, play shorter than its actual yardage.
There is a lot of uncertainty about how Castle Pines will play but with four par 5s, two of which will be very reachable in two shots, thanks to the altitude, I do think there will be plenty of birdie opportunities. We’ve typically seen a lot of past events played at elevation end up being very low-scoring events and this course used to host The International, a PGA event from the early 2000’s that used the Stableford scoring system and produced plenty of low rounds.
Let’s dive in and see which totals we want to target for our Pick6 lineups this week.
Pick 1: Collin Morikawa More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Morikawa has played solid golf at altitude before. He won the Barracuda in 2021 in Tahoe at altitude and also competed for the win at the Summit Club (CJ Cup) back in 2022. He may not have got off to the hottest of starts in this year’s version of the FedEx Cup Playoffs (T22) but his scoring clubs continue to produce for him. He gained over 2.7 strokes putting last week and over 3.2 strokes around the greens. Further, while his iron play was subpar, he’s still an elite long-iron player who comes in ranked 5th in SG: Approach stats over the last 24 rounds of play. He’s also 4th in birdies or better gained over the same stretch of play. As mentioned above, I’m not sure this course will play overly difficult (at least to begin with) so I like taking the “More Than” option on some of these lower birdie totals on the big names for Round 1, as I feel like many of these totals may adjust higher for Round 2.
Pick 2: Ludvig Aberg More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Much like Morikawa, Aberg is a player who has also won at altitude (Crans-Montata for the Omega Masters) and seems likely to see some positive regression this week on the greens. The Swede didn’t accomplish much last week in his T40 finish but still gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee and made two eagles for the week, a feat which he may even be able to top this week on this par 72. Regardless, we only need Aberg to make birdies and he should be motivated to get off to a good start as he risks falling out of the top 10 in the FedEx Cup with another poor performance. Even with the small regression in play, he’s still an elite birdie maker and another name I like targeting for a “More Than” on his 4.5 birdie total for Round 1.
Pick 3: Russell Henley More Than 11.5 Pars
Henley hit this prop in three of the four rounds last week and a lot of what I wrote about him at the St. Jude still applies, even with the venue change. He lacks somewhat in birdie-making but is also 8th in bogey avoidance which makes him a great candidate to put a lot of pars every round. Overall, this shorter course should also play in our favor as he’s not a huge hitter off the tee and may have issues getting the ball close on some of the longer holes. He played fine last week (T30) but didn’t take a step up in ball striking so I don’t see his birdie rate climbing a bunch in this spot either. He hit on this same prop for us in Round 1 last week and I have no issues running it back until he shows that his game is either regressing, or he ups his birdie rate significantly.
Pick 4: Sungjae Im Less Than 2.5 Bogeys or Worse
Im didn’t have the greatest start to the playoffs at the St. Jude, finishing T40. Still, the South Korean was far from terrible. He rebounded on approach and has continued to gain strokes putting. He didn’t make many birdies (and is possibly regressing in that area) but also only made eight bogeys or worse. Over his last two rounds at Southwind, Im only made a bogey or worse on three holes. The venue this week should accommodate a little wildness off the tee so even if Im does struggle a bit in that area again, he’ll likely be fine to avoid the big numbers. While he’s been a strong birdie maker this summer, I’d rather play him as a less-than-target for bogies in Round 1. He’s playing solid golf but also isn’t showcasing the kind of form needed to go low enough to put in big rounds.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2 to 6 players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing between 2-6 players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies tha
