Remember two weeks ago when it not only seemed like Paul Skenes was a shoo-in for National League Rookie of the Year, but also a legitimate Cy Young candidate? How quickly things can change.
It’s not like Skenes has recently pitched poorly, either, though he’s certainly not been as untouchable as he was in June and July. The RHP’s 4.15 ERA and 4.14 FIP in August is noticeably higher than the numbers we’d seen in months prior, while Skenes’ strikeout rate has fallen to 25.0% across his last three starts. His fastball velocity is also down in that span. That’s a real red flag for multiple reasons. One, it justifies his “slump” as more than simply small sample size noise. Two, it might make the Pirates’ brass think about shutting their star pitcher down in yet another lost campaign in Pittsburgh.
That said, according to reports from the Athletic, the Pirates do not have an innings limit in mind for Skenes, nor do they plan to end his season early due to workload management. Take that as you will.
Meanwhile, Jackson Merrill has been crushing the baseball since the All-Star break for the surging Padres. In 112 plate appearances, Merrill is slashing .327/.351/.644 with a .317 ISO and a 169 wRC+. The hits have been quite timely, too.
Add in some above-average defense at a premium position that he’s learning on the fly in 2024, and suddenly you’ve got a 21-year-old with a 3.7 fWAR that leads all rookies in MLB by a wide margin. You’ve also got a pretty compelling case for Rookie of the Year.
Still, with how quickly the odds have flipped in August, I think it’s worth mentioning that this isn’t a two-horse race — at least not to me. Jackson Chourio, formerly the No. 2 overall prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, is just as hot at the plate as Merrill. In the 116 plate appearances the Brewers’ future star has taken since the Midsummer Classic, Chourio is slashing .327/.362/.555 with a 154 wRC+. The fact that he’s taken off offensively just as Milwaukee lost Christian Yelich for the season should not be overlooked. The Brewers running away with the NL Central is another nice piece of the puzzle.
Chourio might not be able to make up enough ground on his fellow rookies, but there’s no way he should be listed at +6000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
