Entering the 2024-25 NHL season there are a lot of milestones to keep an eye on, but none bigger than the one Alex Ovechkin will be chasing. Right now — right this second as I type this sentence — Ovechkin is sitting 42 goals shy of becoming the all-time NHL scoring leader, passing Wayne Gretzky, who holds the current record with 894 goals.
Once thought to be an untouchable record, the rebound in league scoring has allowed records like this to become more reachable for the modern player.
With all eyes on Ovechkin this season, DraftKings has given bettors a way to wager on this milestone, with a REGULAR SEASON PLAYER SPECIAL market:
Ovechkin’s chase of this record will be one of the most noteworthy news stories of the season, and bettors now have a shot to get in on the action.
Let’s break it down and see if chasing this prop on Ovechkin is worth it.
Can Alex Ovechkin score 42 goals next year?
Records aside, this bet is asking us a simple question. Can the Great Eight score 42 goals in his age-39 season with the Capitals?
There is no question that the numbers are working against Ovechkin. The Russian’s pace has slowed considerably the last few seasons, as he’s dropped from 0.64 goals per game in 2021-22 to a career-low 0.39 goals per game in 2023-24. However, even with the drop in production, there are some extenuating factors to consider before we write off this bet.
First, Ovechkin finished stronger than he started last year. Over his last 36 games, the winger scored an incredible 23 goals. Over a full season, that would have extrapolated to a 52-goal pace. Second, Ovechkin didn’t start last season looking to break Gretzky’s record. The Capitals were still considered borderline contenders in the East and somehow managed to squeak into the playoffs, getting destroyed by the Rangers in the first round.
Right now, the Capitals have +6000 odds to win the Stanley Cup and are -190 to miss the playoffs on DraftKings Sportsbook. With a high likelihood of the Capitals suffering through a transition/rebuilding year, Ovechkin and the organization will be more free to focus on the record and getting Ovechkin over the 894-goal hump.
Final Verdict
At +1000, the implied probability of this bet sits around 9.09%, meaning we’d need this bet to hit to happen at least 10% of the time or more to be profitable long term. Ovechkin’s overall scoring pace may have slowed, but with the attention this record is sure to get, and how effective he was in the second half of last season, I’d say the true probability that he accomplishes this feat may be quite a bit higher than these opening odds suggest.
Either way, as the season gets closer, this is certainly a bet I expect will get more attention. With Ovechkin being so popular and people wanting to be a part of history, don’t be shocked if these opening odds are quite a bit shorter by the time preseason rolls around.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All c
