Every team is in action tonight, starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Game Total over 7.5 runs -112
I was a bit surprised about this total at 7.5 runs this morning. We have two pitchers taking the mound that haven’t exactly gotten off to a great start with their new teams. Erick Fedde was one of the most sought after starters at the trade deadline. The Cardinals scooped him up but he hasn’t given the return they anticipated. In the month of August he’s thrown 16 innings allowing 10 runs on 16 hits, including four home runs, and 12 strikeouts.
It’s surprising after seeing what a great first-half he produced but maybe the workload is starting to catch up to Fedde. Last year in the KBO, he’s thrown a career high 180.1 innings, which at the time was 47 more his previous high of 133.1. Currently, he’s at 137.2, which is a career-high in the majors. Regardless of if that’s an issue or not, Fedde faces a Brewers team that hits cutters and sinkers well, his two main pitches.
Frankie Montas will be making his fourth start as a Brewer and his previous three haven’t been great. He’s thrown 14 innings and allowed six runs on 16 hits with seven walks and 18 strikeouts. Not the worst but certainly not the best. The big knock on him have been his numbers against left-handed bats. They’ve tagged him for a .383 wOBA, a massive 6.31 FIP and 12 of the 16 home runs he’s allowed. The Cardinals will likely have between 4-5 lefties in the lineup tonight, which could spell trouble for Montas. Dating back to his time with the Reds, Montas hasn’t completed more than five innings in five straight starts.
Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Corey Seager over 1.5 bases -105
I love this spot for Seager at home against Mitch Keller. He’s always been someone who has struggled against lefties and 2024 is no different. Currently on the year, Keller has a .335 wOBA with a 4.16 FIP and 13 of the 17 home runs he’s allowed. Those numbers get even worse when he’s on the road, where he has a .357 wOBA with a 4.19 FIP and eight home runs. Seager has been locked in at the plate, especially as of late. Over the past month he has a .411 wOBA and a .289 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Keller is in the midst of a horrible stretch on the mound. Since the second-half of the season has begun, he has a putrid 6.00 ERA with a .323 wOBA, a 5.20 FIP and five home runs allowed through 27 innings. I’m under the belief that he’ll struggle again tonight and Seager matches up very well against what he throws.
You can also take Seager to go over 1.5 bases in this Same Game Parlay I made that is currently up on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Royals team total over 2.5 runs first five innings -110
Tyler Anderson has been a regression candidate throughout the season. HIs 3.30 ERA is accompanied by an xERA of 4.23 ERA. At least thus far, the second-half of the season has been seeing that. Through 29.1 innings, Anderson has produced a 4.60 ERA with a .306 wOBA and a 4.05 FIP. Tonight, he’ll face a good hitting club against lefties in the Royals. They’ve been playing very good baseball lately, winners of five in a row and 7 of their last 10. The opportunity to get to Anderson has been early in the game, as his numbers the first time through the order are the worst of the bunch. Anderson has a .324 wOBA with eight home runs allowed when facing the lineup the first time through the order.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
