It’s been a rollercoaster for Duke on the gridiron the last few years. The Blue Devils were traditionally a doormat, but when Mike Elko showed up he worked his magic. Duke was projected for three wins in 2022, and somehow ripped off an 8-4 regular season. They followed it up by going 7-5 in 2023, but played a very difficult schedule. But Elko is off to Texas A&M, and I’m projecting the fun to be over. Here’s how I’m fading Duke on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Duke UNDER 5.5 Wins (-160) — 1.5-units
I was leaning towards a Duke under for much of the summer, but following my conversation with Phil Steele for DK Network, I’m on board with a play here. It’s a juicy play to the under, but it could win up moving to 5-flat, so I’ll play it now. Yes, Duke won eight and seven games the last two regular seasons, respectively, but I think that has put a little bit of a premium on the number.
On the surface, a casual bettor may see Duke’s recent records and wonder why this total is set so low. But it’s actually probably set a bit to high once you dig in. The Blue Devils return just five starters on each side of the ball, losing QB Riley Leonard to Notre Dame. Duke also lost its top rusher from last season, as well as most of the key contributors on defense.
Now Manny Diaz steps in to lead the program, which historically has not gone well for him. If there’s any hope for Duke this season, it’s that they have three very win-able games early during the non-conference. Elon, UConn and at Middle Tennessee are all played by September 21, but the Blue Devils do have to travel to Northwestern for a tougher game.
Let’s just say Duke opens 3-1 entering ACC play. We need a 2-6 record or worse in ACC play to cash our under — something I think is very realistic. There’s just not much of a soft spot in ACC play for the Blue Devils — UNC, at Georgia Tech, FSU, SMU, at Miami, at NC State, Virginia Tech and finally at Wake Forest. It’s possible Duke isn’t favored once in conference play, so when we tack on that road game at NW, it’s pretty unlikely we see Diaz take this squad to a Bowl Game in Year One.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
