The San Francisco 49ers have been among the most successful teams in the NFL, but have yet to get over the championship hump.
Over the past five seasons, San Francisco has gone a combined 44-29 in the regular season. They have made it to the Super Bowl twice during this period and fallen in the Conference Championship on two other occasions.
The 49ers enter this season with the 2nd best odds to win it all at +600 on DraftKings Sportsbook trailing only the Chiefs. They have +250 odds to win the NFC, are -195 to win the NFC West, and -525 to make the playoffs outright. Their season-long win total sits at 11.5 games with the under favored at -125 odds.
NFC Number 1 Seed (+300)
The San Francisco 49ers have won the NFC West the past two seasons, and entered the playoffs last season as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
San Francisco enters as the favorite to repeat in this category at +300 odds. The Philadelphia Eagles (+550), Detroit Lions (+600), Dallas Cowboys (+700), and Atlanta Falcons (+750) are perceived to be their biggest threats. However, there are more notable concerns with each of these teams compared to the 49ers.
The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a complete collapse last season. They also have fought the constant offseason distractions of a rumored rift between Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts. On the field, the Eagles will also have to face off against the Dallas Cowboys as the two will fight it out for the NFC East title. The Cowboys have battled plenty of off-season contract drama themselves as well.
Led by their impressive offensive attack, the Lions took a massive stride forward going 12-5 last season. However, the rest of the NFC North got much better this offseason as the Bears and Packers will both be teams to watch this year. Detroit will face eight teams that made the playoffs last year and must replicate last year’s offensive success to even maintain the production they showed.
While the Atlanta Falcons have become a trendy pick and look like a complete team on paper, they have gone 7-10 in each of their last three seasons. Contending for the top conference seed would be a massive step forward for the organization. While Kirk Cousins has been highly effective throughout his career, there also has been seemingly no concern about his return from an Achilles tear.
Simply put, it feels as if the rest of the NFC has the potential to take a step back while the 49ers have stayed the same. There was some loss on the defensive line, but the group will still be headlined by Nick Bosa. The Brandon Aiyuk situation has lingered over the franchise throughout the summer, but there is plenty of firepower behind him. Kyle Shanahan is also uniquely equipped to create a scheme to overcome talent deficiencies. Despite the quarterback changes that have occurred during his tenure, he has mostly kept the team on track for success.
There is a much higher baseline for what the 49ers will be than just about any other team in the NFL. Expect them to keep their identity and have the inside track on getting the top seed in the playoffs from nearly start to finish. The +300 value for San Francisco to end up in the same spot they did last year feels like great value.
Deebo Samuel Over 800.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
In general, Deebo Samuel is a difficult player to quantify in terms of fantasy football or betting values. His ability to be used at multiple positions and move around the field makes him a better football player than sometimes the numbers or betting props indicate.
However, the 28-year-old has an intriguing opportunity to take a statistical step forward this season. The future of Brandon Aiyuk continues to hang in the balance and it is appearing more and more likely the trade to Pittsburgh will be the outcome. If this is the case, the 49ers will have to find a way to replace the 1000+ receiving yards Aiyuk has tallied in back-to-back seasons.
Deebo Samuel was most heavily relied on in the passing game during the 2021 season. That year, he received a career-high 121 targets which he converted into 1,405 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He still added 365 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground as well.
While Jauan Jennings and rookie Ricky Pearsall will also be asked to step up, Samuel is San Francisco’s most dynamic weapon. Even if Aiyuk stays in San Francisco, Samuel is capable of reaching this level of production. Just last season, he tallied 892 receiving yards while missing a pair of games.
Expect Samuel to be a key part of San Francisco’s production with or without Aiyuk. The 800.5 receiving yard total feels a bit low for his level of talent and the production that may need to be made up for.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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