The New York Giants have been the center of media attention this offseason. Unfortunately, it has mostly been for the wrong reasons.
Losing Saquon Barkley in free agency to their NFC East rival Philadelphia Eagles was a tough break for the franchise. To make matters worse, the innerworkings of this were put on full display as the Giants were followed by HBO’s Hard Knocks this year. New York will look to put the cameras behind them and focus on the football field this season. It won’t be easy.
The Giants enter this season tied for 28th-best odds to win it all at +15000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They have +7000 odds to win the NFC (2nd-worst), +2000 to win the NFC East, and +400 to make the playoffs outright. Their season-long win total sits at 6.5 games with the under favored at -135 odds.
New York Giants Under 6.5 Wins (-135)
You have to pay a little juice to take the Giants at under 6.5 wins but for good reason.
New York is coming off a pretty disastrous season. They went just 6-11 in 2023 and lost arguably their best player on both sides of the ball this offseason. In addition to Barkley leaving for the Eagles, Xavier McKinney also signed with the Green Bay Packers in free agency. The 26-year-old tallied 116 tackles and three interceptions last year, leaving a massive hole in the secondary.
Last season the Giants ranked 30th in the league in scoring at 15.6 points per game and allowed 23.9 points per game which was the 26th-worst rate in the NFL. Offensively, the team ranked 29th in total yards, 30th in first downs, 31st in score percentage, and 27th in turnover percentage. Defensively, New York allowed the 6th most yards and were ranked 28th in first downs allowed, 31st in rush yards per attempt, and 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
While there were a few positive offseason additions, most notably rookie Malik Nabers on offense and Brian Burns on defense, the Giants roster is still largely incomplete.
At the forefront of these concerns is quarterback Daniel Jones. Just a few months after signing a four-year $160 million extension with the Giants last offseason, Jones suffered a torn ACL. In the six games he played last year before the injury, Jones threw for two touchdowns and six interceptions while leading the Giants to a 1-5 record. The early signs of progress have not been promising as he heads into his sixth season. Case in point: these two interceptions in the recent preseason game against the Texans.
With neither indication that Daniel Jones has improved nor a good enough roster to make up for his deficiencies, the Giants are definitely concerned. They have prioritized building up the team instead of looking to replace Jones. While this may ultimately end up being the right call in the long run, it does not give much reason to believe this year.
You can anticipate a few flashes from Malik Nabers and a handful of wins throughout the year, but don’t expect much from the Giants this year. Six wins feels like the ceiling of what New York can do and it is certainly possible they will be closer to the number one pick conversation.
The -135 odds are juiced up but let’s not get greedy. Keep your expectations low for the Giants this year and expect them to struggle to muster up the seven wins it would require to clear this win’s total.
Daniel Jones Over 8.5 Interceptions (+100)
Turnovers will be the biggest thing to watch with Daniel Jones this season. It has been an issue that has plagued him throughout in his NFL career.
We can still expect Jones to get plenty of opportunity despite the fact that there are seldom instances of teams willing to tolerate below-average quarterback play. While the Giants brought in Drew Lock as the backup quarterback and Tommy DeVito remains on the roster, Jones playing through his mistakes is clearly the best route for the Giants. The organization has already committed with their wallets and will be sure to give Jones every chance to grow into the quarterback they paid him to become.
In his five seasons in the NFL, Jones has thrown 40 interceptions in 59 games. Jones threw 12 as a rookie and 10 in his second season before cutting down his turnovers. The Duke product played just 11 games in 2021 but still tossed seven interceptions. In 2022, Jones returned to play 16 games and had an NFL-best 1.1% interception percentage; turning it over just five times through the air. The former 6th overall pick took a step back once again last season as Jones had six interceptions in six games and a career-worst 3.8% interception rate.
The Giants expect Jones to suit up the entire season. With this being the case, there will be enough opportunity for Jones to throw at least nine interceptions.
Outside of Malik Nabers, New York is fairly limited in their reliable weapons. We can expect this to result in some forced passes, poor decisions, and overall bad football. Even if Jones is able to keep his head afloat and have a successful season, nine interceptions feels like a number he could reach. Take advantage of the even money and expect his interception mark to clear the 8.5 margin.
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