The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $800K Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
This week, the field has been pared down again, as only the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup Playoffs have advanced. Notable players who WILL NOT play this week include Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim and Min Woo Lee. After the BMW Championship is complete, the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be allowed to tee it up one more time in two weeks at East Lake for a chance at some serious cash. As of now, the top five in the FedEx Cup standings are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Rory McIlroy.
The seeding going into the last leg of the playoffs is very important given the structure of the Tour Championship, where top players start at better scores than those beneath them. Expect to see a lot of jockeying for position on the weekend in what is always a fun and exciting final round. The 50-man field this week makes this a no-cut event, so all six golfers you play on DraftKings will get in four rounds, as long as they’re not disqualified or withdraw.
The Course
Castle Pines Golf Course —Denver, COL
Par 72, 8,130 yards, Greens: Poa/Bentgrass
At over 8,100 yards, Castle Pines is set to break the record for longest course ever played on the PGA TOUR. The venue is set at 6,400 feet of altitude in Denver, COL, and was last seen on the PGA TOUR in the early 2000s when it hosted the now defunct International – an event that used to use the Stableford scoring method.
Castle Pines was a different course back then as it measured 600 yards shorter than it does today and contained far fewer features. The Jack Nicklaus-designed venue underwent a renovation shortly after it left the TOUR and saw several holes go through full-fledged redesigns, with 77 bunkers added to the course, along with 600 yards of length.
It’s going to be a tough week to gauge what kind of player, stylistically, we want to target as the extreme altitude will likely see the actual yardage of this course play 10% less than listed. That would see the course play closer to 7,400 yards which is much more manageable.
Setup-wise, Castle Pines is a true Par 72 with four par 5s, two measuring over 650 yards. Even with those mammoth yardages, players are still likely to be able to get their second shot near the green in two on these holes and make them relatively solid birdie chances. While the par 5s may be more of a brute test of power, the rest of the course figures to be more of a test of accuracy than anything. Only one par 3 stretches over 225 yards in length, while just two of the par 4s reach over 500 yards. This may seem daunting at first look but remember the altitude which makes these longer holes more manageable.
The fairways at Castle Pines look overly generous and stylistically should play somewhat similar to Augusta, another course that contains a lot of hidden elevation changes and plays as a longer par 72. The greens at Castle Pines are somewhat smaller, and again that should emphasize approach play. Great mid-iron players who can gauge the altitude properly should benefit from this kind of venue as the more dialed in you are with your approaches, the more likely it is you’ll be able to handle the altitude and gain on the field.
At its core, Castle Pines looks like a brutal test, but with plenty of length off the tee anyone who can consistently pound it out and find fairways will be in good shape. The game this week should be won on second shots, where players will need accuracy and control of their ball flight to deal with smaller greens and the altitude change. As such, proximity from 150-200 yards and strokes gained approach stats look like the ball-striking stats to weigh most heavily.
2024 weather outlook: The weather this week does have thunderstorms in the forecast for the first two days. Highs will generally be in the 85F range so don’t expect anything too crazy as it will still be warm and for the most part, pleasant. It is Denver and at altitude, so the wind is expected to be at least a small factor. Gusts most days sit between 7-10mph but should remain somewhat consistent throughout the event. Overall, with the smaller field, there doesn’t seem like a huge advantage to be gained from weather watching. Early tee times on the weekend may be good targets for better scores in showdown or round-by-round betting markets, especially if there is some overnight rain.
Last Five Winners**
2023–Viktor Hovland (-17 over Scottie Scheffler -15)
2022—Patrick Cantlay (-15 over Scott Stallings)
2021—Patrick Cantlay -27 (over Bryson DeChambeau playoff)
2020—Jon Rahm -4 (over Dustin Johnson playoff)
2019—Justin Thomas -25 (over Patrick Cantlay -22)
Winning Trends
- The past 12 winners of the BMW Championship have all had at least one top-12 finish in their last four starts on the PGA TOUR.
- Of the last nine winners, only two finished worse than T12 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship (the first FedEx Cup playoff event) the week prior (Keegan Bradley T49 in 2018; Patrick Cantlay T57 in 2022).
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2023 Winner (played at Olympia Fields): Viktor Hovland 17-under-par
Lead-in form (6-13-52-1-27)
SG: OTT— +4.3
SG: APP— +4.7
SG: TTG— +8.3
SG: ATG— -0.8
SG: PUTT— +6.2
- Obviously there is no course history to go off this week as the BMW takes place on a changing rotation of courses
- Great ball striking is still always front and center at this event, which often takes place on courses that challenge players into long to mid-iron approaches.
- Last year, only one player in the top nine finishers failed to gain strokes on approach and off the tee
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Wyndham Clark +3000 and $9,200
Comparables:
- Sam Burns +3000 and $9,400
- Billy Horschel +3500 and $9,300
Aaron Rai +3500 and $8,600
Comparables:
- Sahith Theegala +4500 and $8,700
- Justin Thomas +4000 and $8,800
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Recent Form
- Xander Schauffele ($11,100; T2-win): Schuaffele continued to deal last week, getting in the clubhouse at 15-under after a final round 63 that nearly won him the event. He gained 5.1 strokes on approach in the effort.
- Billy Horschel ($9,300; T10-T7-T2): Horschel has played some really good golf this summer. He was T2 at the Open and has posted three straight top 10s. He gained strokes across the board last week at TPC Southwind.
- Scottie Scheffler ($12,300; T4-T7): Scheffler did what he always does last week, which is to get himself in contention. It would be a small shock if he finished the playoffs without winning at least one event.
- Sam Burns ($9,400; T5-T12): Burns played well last week, gaining 7.1 strokes putting and 2.9 strokes on approach. He’s been dominating off the tee and with the setup this week set at 8,100+ yards he might have a nice advantage on the field.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($10,500; win-T66-MC): Matsuyama broke a two-event cold streak by winning his first-ever PGA playoff event. The former Masters winner gained 8.2 strokes on the greens in the effort.
DraftKings DFS Strategy
Cash Games: Take the discount on Schauffele
Maybe Scheffler ($12,300) should still be the highest-priced golfer but it’s hard to ignore what Xander Schauffele ($11,100) is doing. The American looks poised for another run at the FedEx Cup win and outplayed Scheffler in the final round last week. As long as the gap is 1k or bigger Schauffele looks like a better anchor play. Below him, the price on Wyndham Clark ($9,200) looks like a solid bargain for a player gaining in form and with the length off the tee to potentially gain big from this thin-air environment. Robert McIntyre ($7,600) and Will Zalatoris ($6,800) are two other names that stand out as decent values off their performances last week.
Tournaments: Bhatia could surprise
Bhatia ($8,400) won last year at altitude in Tahoe and is a solid driver of the ball who should be able to work his way around this expansive course with ease. His ball-striking numbers have dipped a bit but the change in environment may benefit him more than most. He’s also turned into an elite putter, making him a great upside option for GPPs. I mentioned Taylor Pendrith ($7,300) below but the prices on Nick Dunlop ($6,900) and Austin Eckroat ($6,300) also look inviting. Dunlop won at altitude just last month in Tahoe and Eckroat won earlier in the season on another Nicklaus design and is coming off a T18 performance at the St. Jude.
MY PICK: Sam Burns ($9,400)
Burns is coming off a solid week at TPC Southwind where he gained 7.9 strokes putting and ended the week in T5 – moving him up to 18th in the FedEx Cup standings. The 28-year-old is one of the few top players who made a start after the Open (T6 3M Open) and while he did struggle off the tee at the tighter Southwind, his approaches (+2.9 strokes) took another tick up last week – a good sign that he may be on the verge of an even bigger week soon.
While he’s won on a variety of courses, Burns seems best suited for venues where he has a little more room off the tee, something that Castle Pines will provide him. He gained strokes off the tee at TPC Twin Cities in his previous start and also gained 2.6 strokes OTT at Pinehurst for the US Open, which allowed players to take a more bomb and gouge approach thanks to its lack of traditional rough.
The American has had a bit of an up-and-down season but last week represented his fifth top 10 on the PGA in 2024. His T9 from the US Open in June was also a career-best in terms of major championship finishes. Much like Viktor Hovland last year (and Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau in 2021), a playoff win for Burns would represent the biggest win of his career and he’s at an age when we often see players make a breakthrough in these sorts of elite fields.
At $9,400 he’s still affordable enough to use in either balanced or stars and scrubs lineup builds and at +3000 his outright number on the DraftKings Sportsbooks, also seems more than fair, given his performance in the first playoff event last week.
MY SLEEPER: Taylor Pendrith ($7,300)
Pendrith is coming off a solid opener at the St. Jude where he gained 4.2 strokes on approach and comes in ranked 20th in SG: APP stats over the last 24 rounds. His ball-striking has been solid all summer as he’s gained strokes on approach in five straight starts. Sitting at 27th in the FedEx Cup rankings, he’ll have a shot with a big week of making his first-ever Tour Championship appearance.
The Canadian can be wild off the tee, but as we’ve in the past when you get him a course where there is a lot of room off the tee he can dominate. He gained 5.2 strokes OTT in Minnesota a few weeks ago at TPC Twin Cities and gained 4.0 strokes OTT in Texas during his Bryon Nelson win at TPC Craig Ranch – two venues with larger-than-normal fairways.
In a lot of ways, Castle Pines should be ideal for his skillset, and as he’s a player who has typically done his best when the conditions are slightly easier (especially off the tee) and scoring is lower. At $7,300 on DraftKings, he’s got plenty of upside thanks to his current form and ability to make eagles on these longer par 5s. For betting, laddering him in the top 10 (+450) and 20 (+160) markets this week is another solid way to get exposure to his upside on this course.
He’s a great DFS target and makes sense as a top 10 target for betting as well at +360 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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