Few teams made as significant of offseason splashes as the Pittsburgh Steelers. Following a 10-7 season in which Kenny Pickett was unable to effectively produce at quarterback, the organization made two notable additions under center.
While Russell Wilson remains in what head coach Mike Tomlin calls the ‘pole position’ at starting quarterback, Justin Fields is not a name to fully forget about. In either regard, both players can improve on the quarterback play and further elevate this Steelers team.
Pittsburgh enters this season tied with the 18th-best odds to win it all at +5000 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They hold the 11th-best odds to win the AFC at +2800, are +800 to win the AFC North, and are +185 to make the playoffs. With a season-long win total sitting at 8.5, there may be some value on the board for this under-the-radar team.
Steelers Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
Mike Tomlin is set to enter his 18th season as head coach of the Steelers. He’s never coached a team with a record below .500, so don’t expect this season to be the first.
Headlined by T.J. Watt, the Steelers return a high-level defense. Pittsburgh is coming off a season in which they ranked 6th in points allowed, tied for 2nd in turnover differential, and tallied 47 sacks as a team. Watt, who is coming off a 19-sack season himself, has a strong case for the most impactful non-quarterback of any player in the league. Throughout his career, the Steelers are 69-33-2 in games that Watt has suited up for.
The biggest room for optimism in Pittsburgh falls at the quarterback position. While both Wilson and Fields have reasons for concern, the bar has been set fairly low by Kenny Pickett to start the post-Ben Roethlisberger era.
Last year Pickett ranked 29th in the NFL in passing yards, 29th in completion percentage, 27th in QBR, and 37th in passing touchdowns. In fairness, Pickett started just 12 of the 17 games with Mason Rudolph starting under center in three games and Mitchell Trubisky receiving the opportunity for two. The duo combined for seven touchdowns and nine turnovers in these opportunities.
Russell Wilson is coming off arguably the worst season of his career but still threw for twice as many touchdowns as the Steelers’ quarterbacks. His 3070 yards passing, 26 passing touchdowns, and eight interceptions may be a mild season by Wilson’s standards but will be a welcomed sight for the Steelers. Justin Fields has also had his ups and downs but provides a unique ability with his legs if he does receive the opportunity. The 2021 11th-overall pick has shown enough flashes for a team to remain hopeful and the fact he has not been ruled out as the starter yet is also worth noting.
The Steelers have an impressive defense in place and a proven head coach at the helm. If the combination of Wilson and Fields can prove to be adequate or slightly better, Pittsburgh has a chance to surprise some people.
While the AFC North matchups with the Ravens and Bengals will be difficult, Pittsburgh has some winnable matchups outside the division. They will face off with the Giants, Commanders, Broncos, Colts, and Raiders as a few examples of this. Expect Mike Tomlin to have this team ready to perform and be right in the playoff mix near the season’s conclusion by exceeding the 8.5-win total.
George Pickens Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (+110 Odds)
One player who will be especially excited about the quarterback changes is George Pickens. The third-year wide receiver is coming off a season in which he tallied 63 receptions for 1140 yards and five touchdowns despite the uneasy QB play. Pickens also led the NFL in yards per reception at 18.1, making the most of each opportunity he received.
With Wilson and Fields set to improve the level of stable quarterback play, expect Pickens to be the primary beneficiary of this. The additions of Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, and Roman Wilson are worth noting but none of which will challenge Pickens as the number one target on the roster.
Pickens has flashed the ability to play like a top receiver in the NFL already. The quarterback position is set to be the most stable it has been during his time in Pittsburgh and he has a chance to take his game another step forward. Expect him to be heavily involved in the offense and for Pickens to add to his already impressive career.
Having passed this yardage barrier by eclipsing 1100 yards last year, it is surprising to see his over/under sitting at 925.5. Capitalize on this by taking the plus money and expect him to be heavily involved in the Steelers’ success this season.
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