There has seemingly been more Dallas Cowboys news surrounding contract negotiations than on the actual football field this training camp. That never tends to be a great omen for the upcoming season, but the door remains open in the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys enter the season with the 10th-best odds to win it all at +1900 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They trail the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Lions, Bengals, Eagles, Bills, Texans, and Packers, respectively. Dallas also holds +700 odds to win the NFC, +160 odds to win the NFC East, and hold -210 odds to make the playoffs. Their season-long win total sits at 9.5 games with the over being favored at -145 odds.
Over 3.5 Division Wins (-140)
The Dallas Cowboys have finished with a 12-5 record in each of the past three seasons. They also have failed to make it past the Divisional round in all three of these seasons.
While there seems to be a baseline of regular season success expected for Dallas, this year’s roster lacks the same level of talent as past years. CeeDee Lamb is set to receive as much defensive attention as just about any other positional player in the NFL. Brandin Cooks is set to operate on the other side but is coming off his least productive season since 2019. Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin, and Jalen Brooks are set to round out the receiving core but have just 72 total catches in their combined NFL careers.
Dallas has leaned heavily on their running game during their stretch of recent success. Ezekiel Elliott made a name for himself in this role during the seven years with the Cowboys that started his career. During this time, he rushed for over 8000 yards including leading the NFL in carries and rushing yards twice.
After Tony Pollard was not quite able to elevate the Cowboys backfield, they are attempting to run it back with Elliott. However, the 29-year-old is coming off the fewest rushing yards of his career and is not promised to return to his past form. Rico Dowdle and Ryce Freeman follow Elliott on the depth chart. While the offensive line still is considered to be solid, ranking 10th according to PFF, they also are not the elite group they once were.
Defensively, the Cowboys are coming off a strong season in which they held opponents to the 5th fewest points per game at just 18.5. They also allowed the 5th fewest yards and ranked 4th in defensive turnover percentage. They will look to build off this moving forward, but the defense may need to carry the weight of the team more than in past years.
Overall, there are too many holes to be fully confident in this Cowboys team. Expect them to be in the mix, but the Eagles are too large of a threat in the NFC East to eye the divisional value. There is some intriguing value in the Cowboys to possibly miss the playoffs or go under the 9.5 wins number, but they should be expected to be right in this mix.
Instead, look towards the Cowboys to capitalize against their NFC East opponents and win over 3.5 games in the division. The Commanders are improving, but it is still unclear what level of impact Jayden Daniels will be able to make in his rookie season. The New York Giants still have several question marks, and it is tough to believe in Daniel Jones as he enters his 6th NFL season. The Cowboys could clear this number by beating both these teams twice and also are good enough to split with the Eagles at a minimum.
To take it a step further, these divisional games could be even more important down the stretch of the season. In their non-divisional matchups, the Cowboys will be forced to face off with teams like the Ravens, Lions, 49ers, Falcons, Texans, and Bengals. Dallas will need to find a way to get wins somewhere, and for the sake of their success, it may just have to happen in the division.
CeeDee Lamb Over 104.5 Receptions (-110)
If the Cowboys are to have any type of offensive success, they are going to need CeeDee Lamb to look like the superstar wide receiver he hopes to be paid as.
There is good reason to believe in this being the case. Lamb has cleared this 104.5 receptions mark the past two seasons, including leading the NFL with 135 catches last year. There were nine different receivers to tally 105 catches or more last year. Lamb had notably more targets than every other receiver on this list, with Tyreek Hill being the only player within 10 targets of him.
Expect CeeDee Lamb to be the driving force of the Cowboys offense and to clear this reception total for the third consecutive season. Lamb is also tied for the best odds to lead the league in receptions with Amon-Ra St. Brown at +600, and holds the second-best odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards at +650. He is tied with Tyreek Hill at +900 odds to record the most regular season touchdowns.
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