The Baltimore Ravens are 58-19 in the games that Lamar Jackson has started in the six years he has been in the NFL. While the criticisms for not getting past the second round of the playoffs still apply, the addition of Derrick Henry provides new hope for why this can change.
Baltimore enters this season with the 3rd best odds to win it all at +1000 on DraftKings Sportsbook trailing only the Chiefs and 49ers. They have +550 odds to win the AFC, are +145 to win the AFC North, and -260 to make the playoffs outright. Their season-long win total sits at 10.5 games with the over slightly favored at -120 odds.
Ravens to Win the AFC North (+145)
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a 13-4 season in which they secured the AFC North title before falling short to the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs.
The team produced on both sides of the field last year. They ranked 4th in the league in scoring at 28.4 points per game while holding opponents to the fewest points per game at just 16.5 per matchup. Baltimore forced the most turnovers in the NFL, allowed the fewest net yards per pass attempt, the fewest rushing touchdowns, and held opponents to the worst score percentage in the NFL. Offensively, the Ravens led the NFL in rushing yards, had the 4th best scoring percentage, and ranked in the top ten in turnover percentage.
Adding to the already dynamic offense, the Ravens brought in Derrick Henry as their most notable offseason addition. The 4-time Pro Bowl running back has eclipsed 1000 yards in five of the past six seasons and led the NFL in carries in four of those years. This will mark the first time in his NFL career in which he will not be the sole focal point of an offense and there is potential for him to face fewer bodies on the line than ever before.
While there are a few roster losses from last season, most notably Patrick Queen and Jadeveon Clowney on the defensive side of the ball, the primary core will remain intact. Adding Henry is the type of addition that does not sacrifice the team’s identity while bringing a new element to the offense. Expect Henry and Lamar Jackson to have a nice contrast in running styles that is incredibly difficult to match up against.
Looking around the rest of the AFC North, the Cincinnati Bengals enter as the favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook at +140. The Cleveland Browns sit at +600 odds and the Pittsburgh Steelers round things out with +800 odds. Based on these odds, the AFC North is expected to be the most competitive division in the NFL.
There is reasonable optimism for each of these teams, but also more reason for variance. The Bengals are coming off a 9-8 season but there are still significant injury concerns. This has become an unfortunate trend for Joe Burrow’s career. Already in his 4 years in the NFL, he has sustained a torn ACL, an emergency appendectomy, an MCL sprain, a calf strain, and is currently recovering from a torn ligament in his throwing wrist.
When Joe Burrow plays more than 10 games in a regular season, the Bengals have gone to the Conference Championship or beyond. However, this has only happened in two of his four professional seasons. The torn ligament in his throwing arm is a bit more of a risk than seems to be acknowledged and the Bengals have already sustained some notable injuries in training camp.
Both the Browns and Steelers are relying on quarterbacks who are coming off concerning seasons. In contrast, Lamar Jackson is coming off his second MVP season and is reportedly 30 pounds lighter than in 2022 and weighs 15 pounds less than last season. Expect the Ravens offense to look even more dynamic this season and for them to be in the driver’s seat of the division from start to finish.
Derrick Henry Over 10.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-110)
In the past six seasons, Derrick Henry has tallied 80 touchdowns on the ground. He has cleared this 10.5 number in five of these six seasons and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns twice during this time.
Henry will now join a Ravens team that tallied 26 touchdowns on the ground last year. Oftentimes running backs are threatened by a mobile quarterback, but this should not be an issue with Lamar Jackson. The reigning MVP touched paydirt with his legs five times last season and has never tallied more than seven rushing touchdowns in a season. While Jackson will be a threat to break off a long touchdown, most of the damage with his legs in the middle of the field. This will especially be the case considering his effort to lose weight and the focus of the team to ensure he is healthy.
Gus Edwards led the team in rushing touchdowns last year with 13. Derrick Henry will be the unquestioned goal-line running back and should be expected to reach the end zone regularly this season. Feel comfortable laying the 10.5 number and buckle up for what will unquestionably be one of the most fun offenses in the NFL.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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