After years of mediocrity, Michigan State Football broke out in 2021 with a completely unexpected 11-2 season. That really raised the bar for Sparty moving forward, but it’s been nothing but steep decline. I’m confident that even with a coaching change, MSU isn’t ready to bounce-back quite yet in the mighty Big Ten. Here’s how I’m fading Sparty on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Michigan State UNDER 5 Wins (-110) — 1.5-units
Since that 11-win season, Michigan State has gone 5-7 in 2022 and 4-8 in 2023. If you’re looking for anything that stands out about this team, it’s that there’s a veteran defense returning 10 starters (if you include transfers). But over the last two seasons, this defense is allowing over 400 yards and over 28 points per game. We can make the argument the offense should be slightly improved from the last two seasons, but not improved enough to come anywhere close to contending with the schedule Michigan State has to play.
As Phil Steele pointed out during our conversation on DK Network, Sparty could go on a five-game losing streak (or longer) to begin Big Ten play. Things get going early with a road game at Maryland in Week 2, and only get more difficult. After two more non-conference games, MSU plays Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa and at Michigan — almost surely four straight losses. The only game that MSU should be favored in during conference play would be at home against Purdue. Other tough Big Ten games will include Indiana, at Illinois and Rutgers — pick’em games if you want to be generous.
While MSU has what should be two no-sweat wins at home in the non-conference, it also has to travel to Boston College, where Steele has Sparty priced as a dog. I think this team is going to have a really difficult time improving upon last season’s 4-8 record, and if they do, exceeding 5-7 to go 6-6 and lose the bet on under 5-flat seems unlikely.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
