UFC 305 will take place on Saturday at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The undisputed UFC middleweight champion, Dricus Du Plessis, is headlining the card against fellow African and former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. The co-main event features two high level strikers and former title challengers– No. 4 Kai Kara-France and No. 7 Steve Erceg.
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Studs
Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($8,900)
Rozenstruik has been a mainstay in the UFC’s heavyweight division for the last five years while beating two former champions along the way. This matchup features two of the division’s most powerful strikers and a knockout is likely in this fight. Although Tai Tuivasa is a fan favorite and an exciting fighter when he gets going, he hasn’t looked like his normal self recently. Tuivasa has been finished in each of his last four fights. He hasn’t won a fight since February of 2022. Rozenstruik and Tuivasa each stand at 6’2” but Rozenstruik has a 3-inch advantage in the reach department.
Rozenstruik is a safer bet to produce a good fantasy performance as he is the more consistent fighter, scoring at least 93 DraftKings fantasy points in two of his last three fights. Rozenstruik is a large -230 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook for his about against Tai Tuivasa.
Israel Adesanya ($8,500)
Adesanya, “The Last Stylebender”, is not just a former UFC middleweight champion, but one of the best that the sport has ever seen. On Saturday night in Perth, he will make the walk for his 12th consecutive title fight in a row, tying legends Amanda Nunes and Georges St-Pierre for the third most consecutive title fights in UFC history. Jon Jones has the most with 16, and Demetrius Johnson is in second with 13. Former UFC Heavyweight champion Randy Couture is the only fighter in the company’s history to win a title in the same division three separate times. Adesanya looks to join Couture on that shortlist come Saturday.
Adesanya is indeed coming off one of the worst performances of his career when he lost his title to Sean Strickland in September of 2023. But, this isn’t the first time that Israel has lost his belt. Back in November of 2022, now light heavyweight Alex Pereira finished Izzy, but four months later Adesanya returned and had one of the best finishes of his career. There is legit bad blood between Adesanya and current middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis. In this contest, Adesanya has a major size advantage–three inches in height and four inches in the reach department. Du Plessis out lands him in strikes per minute, 6.49 to 3.93, but Adesanya is a counter striker and only absorbs 3.11 strikes per minute.
Adesanya has scored at least 84 DraftKings fantasy points in five of his last seven fights at middleweight. If the fight goes into the championship rounds, it favors Adesanya heavily to produce a great fantasy performance. Adesanya opened as a -155 favorite when this fight was announced and now is a great value to bet him at -118 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Value Play
Dan Hooker ($6,900)
Hooker is the first member of the City Kickboxing team to fight on this main card. He hasn’t fought since July of 2023, but the last time we saw Hooker in action he knocked down Jalin Turner while out-landing him 125-100 in significant strikes. Hooker’s opponent, Mateusz Gamrot, is coming off of an impressive win in his own right, beating former UFC lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos.
In this matchup, Hooker has a two-inch advantage in height while also having a huge 5-inch reach advantage. This is a traditional striker vs. grappler matchup. Hooker is a big underdog at +260 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but if Hooker can keep this fight standing, he will potentially be a great value play at this low price tag of $6,900. Hooker is averaging 101 DraftKings fantasy points during his past two fights and defends takedowns at an 80 percent rate. Hooker has landed 5.08 strikes per minute while Gamrot lands only 3.09.
Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $750K UFC 305 Special [$200K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ryanwohl) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
