The Oregon Ducks have shifted over from the ashes of the PAC-12 and into the Big Ten. The Ducks have been dropped into a loaded power conference, but are also immediately one of the heavyweights. Oregon (+750) has the third-best odds to win it all on DraftKings Sportsbook behind only Georgia (+300) and Big Ten foe Ohio State (+360). They also have the Heisman favorite in Oklahoma transfer QB Dillon Gabriel. The Ducks should firmly be in the College Football Playoff field unless something disastrous happens. While they are contenders, both in the Big Ten and nationally, I’m backing the Ducks in a more modest fashion.
To Make the Big Ten Championship Game: Oregon (-125) — 1.5-units
Oregon has a win total set at 10.5, and while I lean to the over, I prefer the slightly more expensive price to reach the Big Ten title game. While Penn State and Iowa are projected to have big seasons, and the defending champs in Michigan are lurking, the expectation of most is that we’ll see the Ducks and the Buckeyes square off on December 7 in Indianapolis.
Oregon avoids Penn State and Iowa on the schedule, with the two key games coming at Michigan and versus Ohio State. The Ducks actually aren’t priced as an underdog in a single game, favored at Michigan and priced as a pick’em against the Buckeyes. I actually lean their way in both of those games, giving them a realistic shot to run the table. None the less, even if this is a 10 (doubtful) or 11 (likely) win team, there’s a clear path to the conference title game.
Oregon suffered a back breaking loss to Washington in the PAC-12 Championship Game last season in Las Vegas, ripping away their chances at the College Football Playoff. This season, Dan Lanning returns 17 starters (eight on offense and nine on defense) from an elite team, and replaces Bo Nix with a stud QB in Gabriel. All the pieces are in place for a monster season, as Phil Steele shared with me during our recent conversation for DK Network.
As Phil points out, the Ducks have only lost once at home in the last five seasons — a three-point game to Washington in 2022. Steele favors the Ducks at home in a game that is priced at a pick, and one that I’ll likely be on Oregon. His home field advantage for the Ducks is one of the best in college football, with a 5.25-point edge when playing in Eugene.
If Oregon can takedown the Buckeyes in that game, the wheels would have to fall off the rest of the year not to be playing in Indy. Not to mention, the Ducks have a solid shot to reach the Big Ten Championship even if they lose that game. As you would imagine, the bulk of the bets to reach the game are on Ohio State (-240) — 81% of the bets for 58% of the money. Interestingly enough, Oregon (-125) has received just 3% of the tickets and 7% of the handle, so this one seems to be flying under the radar for some reason.
I’m not playing the conference odds because I do feel the December 7 rematch would set up a nice bounce-back spot for Ohio State if they do indeed drop the regular season matchup. Ohio State would also almost certainly be favored in the game, making a hedge less attractive. Best bet on Oregon is simply to reach the game.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
