Appalachian State has built a name for itself out of the Sun Belt, highlighted by some monster upset victories over powerhouse programs. Now the Mountaineers have the respect of college football fans and bettors, and are the favorite to win their conference — although bettors have been taking a shot on Texas State out of the Sun Belt. I’m passing on the conference and the win total for App State, but am backing the Mountaineers in a unique market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Most Regular Season Wins Matchup: App State (-135) over North Carolina — 1-unit
I’m not saying the Mountaineers are better than the Tar Heels, because they aren’t — although these teams played each of the last two seasons, with App State losing narrow games by one possession in each matchup. The Mountaineers have seen their win total bet up from 7.5 up to 8-flat, and with -130 juice to the over. This indicates the market feels App State has a decent chance at going 9-3.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels stand pat at 7.5, although the win total has slight juice to the over at -115. UNC has a lot of turnover, most notable with QB Drake Maye departing for the NFL. Maye got the team off to a 6-0 start last season, but even with all that talent, UNC limped down the stretch to a 2-5 finish. Not the best momentum heading into 2024. The schedule isn’t daunting for the Heels, but they do start the season off as a road dog at Minnesota, and are clear dogs at FSU and vs. NC State. I wouldn’t say I’m down on UNC this year, but I don’t see them playing too high above expectations.
App State has a clear loss on the schedule when it travels to Clemson in Week 2 — although we’ve seen upsets like this before from this program, and you can definitely interest me in taking the points in this game. Outside of Week 2, many handicappers I’ve talked to have the Mountaineers favored in the other 11 games they play. Things don’t always play out the way they’re supposed to, but we could see App State favored in 3-4 more games than UNC this season. With that possibility on the table, I’ll lay -135 in this win total matchup.
So far the market agrees — App State opened -125 on DraftKings Sportsbook in this matchup, and UNC is yet to receive a bet as of August 13. Yes, 100% of the bets for 100% of the handle are on the Mountaineers in this matchup.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
