The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Summer Sand Trap [$200K to 1st]
The Field
The field this week comprises only the top-70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings and no alternates or qualifiers will be added to the field. After this event, only the top-50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will qualify for the next event (the BMW Championship), so a good week is needed by any player entering this tournament outside of the top- 50. As for the field, we have one of the strongest of the year outside of the majors. Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler are all set to return after extended absences after the Open Championship.
This event used to be a regular PGA TOUR stop (also called the St. Jude) and TPC Southwind has been a familiar location on the PGA TOUR for over a decade. Since this tournament has been cut down to 70 players, there is no additional cut, meaning all 70 players will get to play the weekend—assuming they don’t withdraw or get DQ’d. This is big for DFS purposes and will mean you can take a few more chances when targeting players lower down in the salary range.
The Course
TPC Southwind—Memphis, Tennessee
Par 70, 7,237; Greens: Bermuda
TPC Southwind is a tricky, tree-lined PGA TOUR venue that features plenty of water and smaller-than-average Bermuda greens. The venue shares some similarities to other recent courses like TPC River Highlands (Travelers) and Harbour Town GC (RBC Heritage), but is most comparable to the Florida courses we see early in the season at venues like PGA National and Copperhead.
Southwind isn’t an overly long course, but it has tight fairways, smaller greens, and numerous doglegs that really stretch out some of the holes. Water also comes into play on seven of the holes and can pressure players into bailing out on approaches or tee shots to avoid a penalty. On average, fairways here are 5-7% harder to hit than an average PGA TOUR stop, with greens being equally tough to find. The course has produced winners at 16 and 13 under par the last three seasons and played as the 14th toughest course on the PGA TOUR (out of 41) in 2020, yielding a 69.56 scoring average.
As a traditional par 70, TPC Southwind has just two par 5s, which play as the two easiest holes on the course. The 16th will be reachable in two by almost everyone and is probably the only hole on the course where players will lose ground if they don’t walk away with at least a birdie. The course features four par 3s as well, two of which play as “island style” greens. As for the par 4s, there are six of them that measure in at 450 yards or longer, and only two that come in under 400 yards. While this might not faze players given today’s technology, the doglegs on several of these holes mean longer approaches are often necessary to reach the smaller-than-normal greens. Despite the doglegs, several of these par 4s still play tough off the tee with water in play on either side, meaning accurate players will be rewarded this week.
With so much water in play, TPC Southwind always sees some of the highest “balls hit in water” rates on the PGA TOUR. The water and narrow fairways put a premium on ball striking. For research, Strokes Gained: Approach, GIR%, and Fairways Gained stats are where you should start when narrowing down your player pool this week.
2024 outlook: The weather this week looks mild with a few interesting patches mixed in. The good news is that there is a very low chance of rain, so unless a random T-Storm cell develops, it’s unlikely we’ll have any stoppages. The highs will be between 90-93F on all three days, suggesting the Bermuda greens are likely to play very firm, which means players with higher ball flights will benefit. Thursday looks mild for wind, but Friday has some gusts rolling in that could cause havoc. It’s tough to say if there will be an advantage, but early tee times on Friday may benefit as the wind looks set to rise as the day progresses. Expect a firm test that again puts a huge premium on ball striking, and for the course to play more difficult as the week progresses.
Last 3 winners
2023—Lucas Glover -16 (over Patrick Cantlay playoff)
2022—Will Zalatoris -15 (over Sepp Straka playoff)
2021—Abraham Ancer -15 (over Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns playoff)
**The only year this event was played at TPC Southwind
Winning Trends
Nine out of the last 13 winners of this event finished T22 or better in their previous start before winning.
Eight of the last 10 winners of this event have finished T15 or better at one of the year’s final two majors.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
Lucas Glover (2023—16-under-par)
Lead in form (win-MC-T5-T6-T4)
SG: OTT—+0.9
SG: APP—+2.5
SG: TTG—+6.5
SG: ATG—+3.1
SG: PUTT—+3.1
- In 2021, Abraham Ancer won the WGC event played at Southwind and was top 10 in strokes gained approach.
- In 2022, Zalatoris was even better in that category, gaining 7.7 strokes on approach and over 9.0 strokes tee to green.
- In 2020 the course played a little tougher, and Justin Thomas beat the field by multiple strokes, despite losing strokes to the field on the greens. He gained over 13 strokes Tee to Green for the week and was third in SG: Approach and second in SG: Around the Green.
- Thomas’ win was a stark contrast to 2019 when Brooks Koepka won at Southwind and gained 9.3 strokes putting for the week, ranked just 11th in SG: Approach, but also won the event by three strokes.
- Players landing inside the top 20 and upwards have generally out-paced the field in greens hit as well as fairways gained throughout the week. While there will always be outliers like Koepka’s volatile putting week from 2019, strong tee-to-green play is essential at TPC Southwind and the most likely route for success this week.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Aaron Rai +3500 and $8,200
Comparables:
- Corey Conners +3500 and $9,100
- Sam Burns +4500 and $8,300
- Sahith Theegala +4000 and $8,600
Justin Spieth +5000 and $7,700
Comparables:
- Wyndham Clark +6000 and $7,900
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +5500 and $7,800
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Horses for Courses (TPC Southwind)
1. Hideki Matsuyama (best finishes: 2nd-2021; T16-2023): Matsuyama has played this venue five of the last six seasons and gained over 1.4 strokes on approach in his last three appearances. In 2021, when he finished second, he gained over 8.0 strokes on approach alone.
2. Justin Thomas (best finishes: win-2020; T13-2022): Thomas has been solid at this venue throughout his career. He won at Southwind when it hosted a WGC event in 2020 and finished a solid T13 at this venue in 2022, gaining over 3.0 strokes off the tee.
3. Matt Fitzpatrick (best finishes: T5- 2022, T6-2020, T4-2019): Fitzpatrick was in the hunt for the win after three rounds in 2020 but faltered on Sunday. He gained an incredible +10 strokes putting in 2020 and has finished top 10 at Southwind in three of the last five years.
RECENT FORM
1. Scottie Scheffler ($12,400; win-T7): Scheffler followed up on his T7 performance at the Open Championship by winning the gold medal in Paris in spectacular fashion. He shot a course record in the final round and proved once again that he’s the best player in golf.
2. Aaron Rai ($8,200; win-T75-T4): Rai finally grabbed his first PGA TOUR win last week, a culmination of a summer that saw him post multiple top-10 finishes and some of the best tee-to-green stats on the PGA TOUR. The course this week also suits his sort of game, so don’t discount him replicating Lucas Glover’s back-to-back feat from last summer.
3. Jason Day ($7,500; T9-T13): Day finished T13 at the Open last month and followed that effort up with a top 10 at the Olympics two weeks ago. The Aussie is still inconsistent with his irons, but his game is gaining some traction in other areas.
4. Billy Horschel ($8,500; T7-WD-T2): Horschel burned DFS players by withdrawing at the 3M Open, but he rebounded nicely at the Wyndham, finishing T7 and gaining over 5.0 strokes ball striking for the week. His game is clicking right now and this venue does favor a veteran sort of approach.
5. Mackenzie Hughes ($6,200; T28-T19): Hughes is a name to potentially keep an eye on this week. The Canadian has now made five cuts in a row and finished T16 at the Open last month. His putting and short game can keep him in it around a tough course like Southwind.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Im and Rai good anchor plays
Starting with one of the big three names (Scheffler, Scauffele or McIlroy) feels like a bit of a must this week given all three have odds under +1000. If you’re taking that approach and looking to keep your lineup from being a total stars and scrubs build, the value on both Sungjae Im ($8,700) and Aaron Rai ($8,200) will prevent you from having to drift too far down the salary structure to fill out your last spots. Both Im and Rai have been playing well all summer, and while Im didn’t hit the ball so well last week, I’d expect some positive regression in that department given that he had gained on approach in four straight starts prior to the Wyndham Championship. Further down, both Eric Cole ($6,700) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,300) played well at the Wyndham and also look like decent values you can trust this week around the tougher TPC Southwind.
Tournaments: McIlroy makes sense
Just given how well Scottie Scheffler ($12,400) played at the Olympics, it’s hard to say how popular Rory McIlroy ($11,100) will be this week. He is over 1k cheaper than the American but still may be lower owned given that most will only choose to roster one player over 11k. McIlroy has a sterling record in the FedEx Cup playoffs, even defeating Scheffler in the Tour Championship two seasons ago. If you’re fading Scheffler, Rory is the proper pivot for me in bigger fields. I doubt many people will be taking a huge swing with Cameron Young ($8,100) this week, but the American did produce a 62 in Round 2 at the Wyndham. If he does have a big week on the greens, he could easily produce a top-5 fantasy week (even if he blows the win again on Sunday). Other potential GPP targets here include Jason Day ($7,500), Adam Hadwin ($6,300), and Erik van Rooyen ($6,400).
MY PICK: Tom Kim ($8,900)
TPC Southwind is a tougher setup, but it does have a lot of stylistic similarities to last week’s venue (Sedgefield CC). Having won his first PGA TOUR event at Sedgefield in 2022, I view Southwind as another prime spot for Kim to excel at, long term. He’s already shown some good upside at this course—recording a 64 here in Round 1 last season—and has produced three rounds of 66 or better at this event over the last two seasons.
The South Korean also comes in with some percolating form. Kim did cool off a touch after his playoff loss at the Travelers last month, recording missed cuts at the Rocket Mortgage and the Open, but he rebounded nicely in Paris, recording a T8 finish there on another technical setup. Overall, he’s been one of the best players off the tee over the last couple of months and ranks 6th in Opportunities Gained and 4th in overall Proximity over the last 24 rounds.
While other players have seen their DFS price rise, Kim is still available under 9k. This makes him a solid player to build around this week regardless of whether you are looking to make balanced lineups or opting for a less traditional approach.
At +3000, his outright odds are also bigger than they were at the Scottish Open last month where he was up against a larger field—making this look like a decent buy-in spot for betting as well.
MY SLEEPER: Adam Hadwin ($6,200)
Hadwin was a huge letdown for us a couple of events ago at the 3M Open, but he bounced back nicely last week at the Wyndham. The Canadian only finished T28 in North Carolina, but he gained an impressive 2.7 strokes off the tee and 3.3 strokes on approach.
He’s also a player who has excelled at these Florida-style venues where water is prominent and accurate off-the-tee play is rewarded. His lone PGA TOUR win came at the equally tough Copperhead venue, another winding course that features plenty of water and some longer par 4s. He’s also placed well at TPC Stadium and the Memorial, a venue the best ball strikers on the PGA TOUR take center stage.
With this being a no-cut event and Hadwin showing some much improved off the tee play last week, he’s exactly the sort of player I want to gamble with in the low 6k range. When his ball-striking is on, he’s super accurate off the tee and can get extremely hot with his putter (and did gain 6.4 strokes putting at Southwind last season).
At $6,200, he makes sense as an upside target for DFS lineups and makes for a nice long-shot play in the top 10 and 20 markets (+1000 | +350) on the DraftKings Sportsbook this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All c
