It’s another sunny summer MLB Saturday and DraftKings Sportsbook offers plenty of ways to play. There are Money Lines, Run Lines and Player Props. Check out the best bets for the Saturday, August 10 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+124)
Osvaldo Bido spent seven years in the Minors. He graduated to the Big Leagues in 2023. In 16 games, he posted a 5.86 ERA. That’s not terrible for a rookie. It’s not great for a 27-year-old on a team with better prospects. The Pirates did not offer Bido a contract. The A’s picked him up at the minimum. He started the season at Triple-A and worked as an A’s reliever until July 19. In three starts, Bido has a 6.14 ERA (4.52 xFIP). His .378 BABIP and 63% Strand Rate have hurt his traditional numbers. His walks are too high (4.3 BB/9) but the strikeout numbers are impressive (11.1 K/9). In his last start (Aug 4), Bido held the Dodgers to 5.9% Hard Contact and generated a 16% Swinging Strike Rate. Los Angeles scored two runs in six innings. This is a buy-low spot.
Toronto has an average lineup at best. Most of their hitters are below average against right-handed pitchers. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is a concern, but Bido has handled right-handed hitters (.307 wOBA, 0.4 HR/9, 3.90 xFIP and 25% Hard Contact). Bido allows a lot of fly balls, but Toronto doesn’t do much with fly balls against RHP (.131 ISO). Bido relies mainly on his fastball and it was elite in his last start. The Blue Jays rank 26th against fastballs.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-105)
This is a duel between future stars. The future could be now. Paul Skenes was great on day one. River Ryan isn’t too far behind. The Dodgers’ prospect may not have the media hype, but he’s lived up to his No. 2 organizational prospect ranking (MLB No. 34 Prospect). Both pitchers were originally projected to be MLB hitters. Their arms were too special. Skenes made the shift in his final collegiate seasons and Ryan became a full-time pitcher when the Dodgers acquired him from the Padres. They lack experience but it does not show.
Everyone knows Skenes. A simple glance at a game log isn’t the most effective analytical approach. It’s fine for Skenes. He’s been that dominant. Over the last two games, Skenes has hit a little bump in the road. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down. His dominant fastball is down a tick in velocity. This has resulted in fewer innings. It could be nothing. It’s just two games. He has an ERA under 2.00 in 14 starts with just one loss. His win total is six. The problem is the Pirates. Skenes can succeed but that doesn’t mean Pittsburgh wins.
River Ryan debuted on July 22. His three starts have been good but not flashy. Ryan is walking too many batters (5.2 BB/9) but that’s the only knock against the rookie. His Triple-A numbers — 10.4 K/9, 2.76 ERA (hitter-friendly PCL) and 60% Ground Ball Rate — are being replicated in his MLB starts (8.0 K/9 and 46.3% GB). The Pirates have a 24% K-Rate, .131 ISO, .291 wOBA and 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Skenes has to be perfect. Ryan does not.
San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 (-108)
This is the rare example where the Marlins do not matter. Miami has a 23% K-Rate, .133 ISO, .292 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and they’re cold — 29% K-Rate, .121 ISO, .306 wOBA and 96 wRC+ over the last seven games. Those ugly stats aren’t as ugly on Saturday. They’re not a good-hitting team, but they could run into a knuckleball or two. They could also miss them all. It all comes down to Waldron.
This isn’t the typical knuckleballer. Matt Waldron is not a one-pitch wizard. He has a full arsenal. The knuckle is his main pitch (39%). The majority of his pitches are fastballs (fastball, cutter and sinker) and sliders. They all grade out as above-average pitches because hitters can’t sit on anything. On May 28, Waldron struck out eight and held the Marlins scoreless for seven innings. Waldron went heavy with the knuckleball against the Marlins. The 55.8% usage was the second-most knuckleballs thrown in a game. His knuckleball recorded a 41.7% Whiff Rate in Waldron’s last start against the Rockies. On July 24, the pitch generated a 55.6% Whiff Rate against the Nationals. If Waldron has a weakness, then it’s home runs. His 1.0 HR/9 is fine but it ruins great starts. At Miami, Waldron does not have to worry about a knuckleball being popped up and flying out.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
