We’ve got a stacked group of pitchers taking the mound for this evening’s 11-game featured MLB slate. Who should you spend up on? Where can you find some differentiation and some value? I’ve got you covered. I’ll even throw in a few bat suggestions because I’m a swell guy.
Let’s dive in and break down all the action on the diamond.
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PITCHER
Stud
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers, $8,200 – There’s a couple ways you could go at the top — Luis Gil ($8,700) looks tempting in his matchup with the Angels — but I’ll side with Castillo. It’s been a bit of a down year for the veteran RHP, yet Castillo’s still managed to cobble together a 3.43 ERA, a 3.71 FIP and a 23.3% strikeout rate. He’s also tended to be at his best pitching in Seattle, where the 31-year-old owns a 2.82 ERA and a 2.99 FIP so far in 2024. Specific to tonight, Castillo is as cheap as he’s been all season and he’ll draw a matchup with the lowly Tigers. Riley Greene (hamstring) is on the IL. Mark Canha and Carson Kelly were traded away at the deadline. Not surprisingly, Detroit is hitting a league-worst .186 with a 58 wRC+ across the past two weeks. Woof.
Value
Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals, $7,300 – You’re forgiven if you don’t remember how good Springs was back in 2022 and 2023 prior to his injury, but we’re talking about a man with a career 27.2% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate. If you’re looking for upside below $8K, this is your man. Springs looked a little shaky in his first MLB start in 2024, yet he also pitched to a 3.25 FIP and 24.6% strikeout rate across a 30.0 inning rehab in Triple-A. He’s built up and ready to go. In terms of matchup, the Cardinals rank 28th in ISO (.119) and 27th in wRC+ (81) against LHPs this season. Everything lines up for a quality outing from Springs.
INFIELD
Stud
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, $6,200 – I was always hesitant to say that Henderson was in a slump in early July, but whatever it was, it’s over now. Henderson has multiple hits in four of his last five games, including three hits on both Saturday and Sunday against the Guardians. Now, he’ll get to square-off with the struggling Chris Bassitt ($7,000), who pitched to a 7.01 ERA in July. Bassitt has long struggled with LHBs and, this season, lefties are hitting .291 with 1.34 home runs per nine off the veteran RHP. Bassit has also struggled specifically with Henderson. The MVP candidate is 4-for-7 against Bassitt in his career with a pair of long balls.
Stud
Mark Vientos, New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, $4,500 – I think it’s safe to say that Vientos is enjoying his third cup of coffee with the Mets much more than his first two tastes of MLB. The 24-year-old has mustered a 148 wRC+ in his 66 games in 2024, with a lot of that damage coming against LHPs. To wit, in 88 plate appearances within the split, Vientos is slashing .366/.409/.707 with a 213 wRC+. In a matchup with Kyle Freeland ($6,000) at Coors Field, Vientos is simply one of the top bats on tonight’s slate.
Value
Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, $3,100 – How could you not? Holliday’s price tag remains stuck around $3K despite the fact that the rookie infielder has been crushing the ball in his second chance in the majors. In his five games since rejoining the Orioles, the top prospect in baseball has three multi-hit performances and a pair of home runs — one of which was a grand slam off the Blue Jays’ awful bullpen. Until his salary goes up, Holliday is viable in any matchup with any RHP.
OUTFIELD
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Yankees and Angels has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels, $6,700 – Getting Judge into a lineup is difficult, so you have to pick the right moments to make it happen. This is one of those moments. Judge is on fire once again, slashing .485/.630/1.061 with six home runs and a 342 wRC+ over his last nine games. He is, without question, the best active hitter in the sport. As such, I don’t really like the odds that it’s Davis Daniel ($7,700) who slows Judge down. After an incredible debut outing in 2024, Daniel struggled to a 7.71 ERA in July. That’s not going to cut it versus Judge.
Stud
Randy Arozarena, Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers, $4,800 – Don’t look at the overall stats. Arozarena has been a different player since the beginning of June. In his last 216 plate appearances, Arozarena is slashing .285/.398/.503 with a 160 wRC+. He’ll look to add to those amazing numbers on Tuesday in a matchup with the floundering Keider Montero ($5,400). Everyone has hit Montero well in 2024, but especially RHBs. Righties come into this evening’s slate with a .396 wOBA off Detroit’s 24-year-old RHP. Montero’s conceding 2.75 home runs per nine within the split, as well.
Value
Garrett Mitchell, Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, $3,100 – With Jackson Chourio ($3,900) recently turning heads in Milwaukee, Mitchell’s run of success has sort of gone under the radar. However, the former first-round pick has been swinging the bat well since returning to the majors in July. In his 57 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Mitchell is slashing .320/.404/.480 with a 151 wRC+. Meanwhile, Bryce Elder ($7,900) has had his issues with LHBs in 2024, allowing those within the split to rack up a .407 wOBA.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Knuckleball [$50K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
