Monday marks the start of a crucial series for these two Wild Card contenders.
The Royals will roll with Brady Singer and his 2.88 ERA. Although his 3.74 FIP indicates there may be some regression in the right-hander’s future, Singer has been quite consistent for KC. He has logged 10 quality starts across 22 outings. Singer also has seven other appearances in which he fell short of a quality start but still held an opponent to two or fewer runs across at least five innings.
James Paxton, on the other hand, has not been as reliable. The left-hander will make his second start in his second tenure with the Red Sox — this time having moved to Boston after being designated for assignment by the Dodgers. Paxton has a 4.52 ERA and 4.96 FIP, indicating there aren’t many better days ahead if he doesn’t find a way to make an adjustment.
The lineups both pitchers will face are not easy ones to navigate. Here’s a look at how Boston has performed against right-handed pitching and how Kansas City has done against left-handed pitching via the Team Splits tab in DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub:
As tough as Boston should be for Singer, I’d rather back an individual Red Sox bat than fully go against the KC righty. That said, seeing his outs recorded total being down to 17.5 does make me think the under is worth considering at -130.
But my focus among the pitching player props is Paxton under 3.5 strikeouts at +100. The left-hander struck out five over 4 1/3 in his return to the Red Sox. But, that also came against the Mariners. Seattle has a 26% strikeout rate against lefties this season. The Royals, however, have a 17.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. At home, that number dips down to 17.2%. That’ll make it a lot harder for Paxton to go over this mark for an 11th time in 20 starts.
As for the individual numbers and player props of the hitters in this game, here’s a look at how some of them have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:
Lefties have been substantially better than righties against Singer this season. Righty bats enter Monday with a .215 wOBA against him while lefties are rocking a .368 wOBA. That plays right into Boston’s hand.
Rafael Devers, Jaren Duran and Wilyer Abreu enter Monday with ISOs over .270 and wOBAs over .380 against righties. Abreu is quite hot right now, homering in two of Boston’s three August games. At +140 to go over 1.5 total bases, it’s hard to not back the hot hand. Devers is a strong play at -105. Duran has the worst number at -125, but he’s still a quality option at the price. Same Game Parlaying all three to log a hit provides +128 odds.
As for the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr.’s total bases line is set at 2.5 (over +115/under -155). Understandable with how good he’s been, particularly against left-handed pitching (.221 ISO and .391 wOBA). Regardless, Hunter Renfroe over 1.5 total bases at +105 is ultimately my lean among KC’s player props. He has a .192 ISO against lefties, but that number is largely powered by his play at home, where he has a team-best .344 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Place your bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
