The NBA Finals wrapped up just over a month ago, but we’re already looking ahead to next season.
NBA win total lines are LIVE on DraftKings Sportsbook along with a bunch of other futures markets. Over the coming weeks, I’ll be breaking down my favorite over/under picks for a variety of teams around the association. In case you missed it, check out my last win total article for the Dallas Mavericks.
Without further ado, let’s dive into my best bet for the Milwaukee Bucks.
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Milwaukee Bucks: UNDER 51.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)
I don’t see the vision with this squad.
Unless the vision is stagnation, of course, then I think Milwaukee is perfectly on course.
Look, I get the case FOR the Bucks going over this total. It all starts and ends with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is still the third best player in the NBA, or second depending on who you ask.
Still under 30, Giannis is a one-man wrecking crew. The stats speak for themselves: 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game last year.
That said, the Bucks simply do not have enough around him. Damian Lillard was a clear offensive upgrade over Jrue Holiday, but the loss of the latter on the defensive side of the floor hurt the Bucks much more than Dame could make up for with his scoring. He’s also 34 years old and will almost certainly not play 73 regular season games again after doing so in 2024/25.
Speaking of players who are well over 30, Khris Middleton hasn’t been the same since 2022. Injuries have derailed his last few years, and after undergoing arthroscopic surgeries on BOTH ankles this offseason, I expect it to be more of the same in the 2024-25 campaign. Let’s not forget about Brook Lopez either, who is definitively past his prime at 36 years old.
This is a team that many were expecting to launch a dynastic run following their 2021 title. Flash forward to the present, and they have nothing to show for their efforts over the last three years. Realistically, last season was this core’s “all-in” shot after trading for the aging Lillard, but they finished with just 49 wins and another first-round exit to the Indiana Pacers.
If the Bucks are set on giving this group another chance, they’ll likely need to rest Dame, Middleton, and even Giannis more frequently to ensure that they’re fresh for the postseason. That will likely result in more regular season losses.
It’s also worth noting that multiple Eastern Conference contenders have bolstered their rosters since the conclusion of the 2024 NBA Finals, while others look to take the next step. I fully expect the Knicks, 76ers, Magic and Pacers to produce stronger regular season campaigns than last year. Taking all of the factors I’ve laid out above into consideration, I don’t believe Milwaukee’s path to winning at least 52 games is feasible.
That’s my favorite NBA futures bet for the Milwaukee Bucks! Stay tuned for more picks over the coming weeks.
Place your NBA bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
