The DraftKings Friday Slate features some of MLB’s best pitchers. They’re not cheap. Hitter-friendly parks are in play. Bad pitchers are taking the mound. The top bats come at a cost. DraftKings DFS MLB lineups will require fantasy baseball value picks. It’s time to dive into the bargain bin and score some ROI.
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SP Paul Blackburn, New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, $7,500
The Mets know what they are doing. There’s a plan. The trade deadline acquisition of Paul Blackburn from the A’s didn’t generate headlines. If the Mets make the playoffs, the Blackburn deal could be pivotal. This is not just another arm to fill out the rotation and eat innings. Blackburn fits the Mets’ new identity. New York is bucking the trend. Their pitching staff is headed in a new direction — an old direction.
Velocity and spin rate became an obsession. The pitchers that embraced the new wave became immediate successes. The batters adapted. A decade ago, sinkers and pounding the bottom of the strike zone were crucial. Batters adapted. They became launch angle enthusiasts. Pitchers adapted. Batters adapted. The Mets are getting ahead of the curve and are switching back to sinkers. Hitters are looking for heat and pitches up in the zone. The sinker is novel again.
Paul Blackburn was a heavy sinker pitcher earlier in his career (47.5% Sinker Usage during his rookie season in 2017). As the times changed, he changed. The Mets have a plan. Their rotation is filled with reinvented pitchers. Every starter is a surprise. Blackburn is the perfect specimen for their project. His curveball, slider and changeup have graded well over the last two seasons. If the Mets can bring life to his sinker, then Blackburn will be a steal.
2B/3B Santiago Espinal, Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants, $2,600
Why hasn’t Espinal’s salary changed? What is DraftKings waiting for? Espinal is riding an 11-game hit streak. His batting average is .543 on the streak (.624 wOBA, .371 ISO and 308 wRC+). His hit streak hit a fever pitch in his most recent series at home against the Cubs. He doubled and went 2-for-4 on Wednesday night. The day before, he was a perfect 4-for-4 with a homer and two doubles.
SP Kyle Harrison ($7,800) was great in his last start (11 Ks in 6.2 IP vs. Colorado Rockies). The lefty can neutralize the Reds lineup. Imploding is a scenario, too. It’s a hot summer night in Cincinnati. The ball can fly. Espinal is the perfect example of the Great American Ballpark boost. Harrison allows 36% hard contact to right-handed hitters. Espinal has a .212 ISO, .336 wOBA and 112 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
3B/SS, Daniel Schneemann, Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles, $3,200
Baseball is fascinating. Ballparks are a living and breathing part of the game. Basketball courts, hockey rinks and football fields do not matter. The dimensions are the same across each league. Ballparks favor hitters or pitchers and right-handed players or left-handed players. Progressive Field (formerly “The Jake”) has created one of the best storylines of 2024. An offseason renovation eliminated shipping crates in the right field stands. As the theory goes, this created a wind tunnel. The ball flies out in right field. The Statcast data supports the theory that a heavy wind current increases ball travel.
Cleveland fans are quick to dissent. They want to believe that their team is legit. Unbiased observers know the truth. Statcast doesn’t lie. Beyond the advanced metrics of Exit Velocity and Launch Angle, there is a simple stat to consider. Progressive Field ranked dead last in home runs for left-handed bats in 2023. This season it’s a top-5 homer-friendly ballpark for lefties.
Schneeman isn’t a consistent hitter but has pop (.202 ISO vs. RHP). SP Dean Kreamer ($7,900) has struggled with left-handed hitters — .338 wOBA, 2.4 HR/9, 4.74 xFIP and 0.34% Hard Contact.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
