It’s Friday. It’s Friday. And, as we know, you have to get down on Friday. Let us celebrate the end of the work week with a huge 11-game featured MLB slate. The pitching pricing list is a little soft, but that just means more home runs, right? Who doesn’t love home runs and much as they love Friday? They’re a perfect combo.
Let’s dive in and find some studs and values on the diamond.
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PITCHER
Stud
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, $9,700 – How you view Ryan heading into tonight’s start depends on how deep you dig into the statistics. On the surface, Ryan’s last five outings have been pretty underwhelming, as he’s pitched to a 4.71 ERA across 28.2 innings of work. However, Ryan’s also struck out 38 opponents in this stretch — a number that equates out to a 30.6% strikeout rate and a 2.36 FIP. He’s just been a little unlucky with a 57.2% strand rate. I’ll trust the strikeouts. Especially with a matchup against the lowly White Sox on the horizon. Chicago hasn’t won a game since the All-Star break at it has a league-worst 53 wRC+ in that span of time. Woof.
Value
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros, $6,800 – It’s not the greatest matchup on paper, but I like Baz’s upside at his modest price — particularly in comparison to the other arms below $7K. The former top prospect has been pretty good in his return to the majors, posting a 3.66 ERA in his four starts off the IL. Baz has also racked up 19 strikeouts in 19.2 innings, a skill that he’s shown time and time again at every level. In his most recent outing, Baz surrendered only a pair of hits in six innings versus the Reds. He’d finish that contest with 21.1 FPTS. Let’s hope the young RHP builds off that success on Friday night.
INFIELD
Stud
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, $6,100 – Henderson went through a bit of a slump in mid-July, yet he comes into this evening’s tilt with Cleveland riding an eight-game hit streak. For the season, he’s also still slashing .306/.380/.595 with a 173 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so I have few concerns about the 23-year-old MVP candidate. The same can not be said about Carlos Carrasco ($6,300). It’s not like the veteran RHP has been good at all in 2024, but July was especially rocky. Carrasco pitched to a 6.84 ERA and conceded a whopping 2.16 opponent home runs per nine in the month.
Stud
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins, $4,800 – He’s alive. It’s been a sluggish campaign for the former All-Star, but Olson is finally looking like himself at a time where the Braves need him the most. To wit, Olson’s racked up five home runs in his last six games, raising his ISO to .191 and his wRC+ to 100 for the season as a whole. Tonight, he’ll look to continue his hot streak against Shaun Anderson ($5,100), a 29-year-old journeyman making his return from a stint in the KBO. Anderson’s allowed 15 runs in the 8.2 innings he’s pitched at the MLB level in 2024. It hasn’t gone super well.
Value
Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies, $3,900 – Let’s use Bogaerts as a value play while we still can. It’s no secret, the 31-year-old got off to a horrendous start to the season, then ended up on the IL for two months. Not ideal. However, since returning on July 12, Bogaerts is slashing .453/.464/.623 with a 209 wRC+ in 13 games. He obviously won’t stay this hot forever, but Bogaerts has won five Sliver Slugger awards. He’s good and he’s playing like it again. He’ll also get a chance to face Austin Gomber ($6,500), who has a 5.73 ERA away from Coors in 2024. That’s when you know it’s been a rough campaign.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox, $4,700 – It seemed like another lost season for Buxton early on, but he’s been a completely different hitter since June 6. In his 150 plate appearances since that day, Buxton is slashing .338/.393/.669 with 10 home runs and a 194 wRC+. That’s the type of production that would be intriguing in any matchup, let alone Davis Martin ($5,900) making his first MLB start since 2022. It’s probably also worth mentioning that the White Sox bullpen is in possession of a 5.96 ERA since the All-Star break.
Stud
J.D. Martinez, New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, $4,700 – Even in his age 36 season, Martinez is still crushing left-handed pitching. Both the surface numbers and the advanced numbers back up this claim. In his 94 plate appearances within the split, Martinez has managed an .898 OPS and a 160 wRC+. Among qualified hitters, Martinez’s .461 expected wOBA against southpaws is the third-highest mark in baseball. Tyler Anderson ($8,000) has been good, but I’ll take my chances with Martinez versus almost any lefty on the planet.
Value
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, $3,800 – I’m not sure if Mullins should go back to switch-hitting, but at this point, the former All-Star can only be trusted in matchups with RHPs. He’s actually thrived in those spots. Since the beginning of June, Mullins is slashing .293/.369/.517 with a 152 wRC+ in his 132 plate appearances against righties. Carrasco is right-handed. Carrasco, as mentioned, comes into this start with some major issues. To me, Mullins is a welcome and cost-effective addition to any Orioles stack.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $250K Rally Cap [$50K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
