This is going to be an odd slate. Not only are we only dealing with five games on tonight’s MLB schedule, but there’s the possibility of rain in four of those five contests. I’m not a professional weatherman, but I did just watch Twisters, so I can tell you the biggest question marks are in Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago. Keep an eye on the skies.
For everything else, let’s dive in and break it all down.
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PITCHER
Stud
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $9,600 – In terms of viability, it’s close between Imanaga and Sonny Gray ($9,800) on this slate, but I’ll side with the starter that comes in $200 cheaper. The 30-year-old rookie has been phenomenal since joining the Cubs, posting a 2.95 ERA and a 3.35 FIP in his 19 MLB starts. Imanaga also owns a 24.9% strikeout rate and a 14.0% swinging strike rate — the third-best mark in the NL — so it’s not like he’s lacking in DFS upside, either. The other thing to consider in this spot? Matchup. St. Louis has shown an complete inability to hit LHPs in 2024, as evidenced by a .118 ISO and an 82 wRC+ within the split. The Cardinals added Tommy Pham ($3,900) at the deadline. I doubt that’s enough.
Value
Max Meyer, Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, $7,500 – Meyer is another arm with a lofty ceiling. The former third-overall pick in 2020, Meyer has made four starts at the MLB level this season, pitching to a respectable 3.00 ERA and 3.76 xERA. At Triple-A? He was in possession of a 27.1% strikeout rate. There’s no question that the 25-year-old has all the tools to succeed. It’s also worth pointing out that this injury-depleted version of the Braves doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. In fact, since July 1, Atlanta ranks first in strikeout rate (27.1%) and 25th in wRC+ (95).
INFIELD
Stud
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, $6,500 – Witt’s stats in July seem like they’re from a video game. In 100 plate appearances, the All-Star slashed .489/.520/.833 with a 270 wRC+. I guess you could say he’s red-hot, if you’re into that sort of analysis. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup that should help him roll that success at the dish into August. Keider Montero ($5,500) has been awful in 2024, pitching to a 6.38 ERA. He’s been specifically bad against RHBs, as he’s allowed those within the split to hit 3.52 home runs per nine. Yikes.
Stud
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles, $6,000 – Welcome to the Orioles, Trevor Rogers ($7,100). Your first task? Figure out a way to neutralize Jose Ramirez. Easier said that done. The switch-hitting third-baseman has been at his best this season as a right-handed bat, slashing .367/.406/.719 with a 210 wRC+ within the split. Meanwhile, despite decent recent results, Rogers has been nothing special in 2024, entering this evening’s tilt sporting a 4.85 xERA. Advantage to Ramirez.
Value
Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals, $3,600 – Keith is on the heels of a very productive July. Like, the kind of month that might vault you right back into the race for AL Rookie of the Year. In 99 plate appearances, Keith hit .322 with seven home runs and a 190 wRC+. Due to injuries, he also now finds himself as Detroit’s everyday two-hole hitter. In an opposite-hand matchup against Seth Lugo ($9,400), the 22-year-old is simply too cheap.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, $5,300 – Do you know who leads the league in home runs since June 1? It’s not the aforementioned Witt. It’s not Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. It’s Santander with 22. In his last 229 plate appearances, the switch-hitting outfielder owns a massive .354 ISO with a 169 wRC+. This is all extra relevant for tonight’s matchup with the Guardians, as Ben Lively ($8,000) has recently been having some issues with the long ball. To wit, Lively surrendered 1.93 home runs per nine in July. That’s a bad formula when facing the Orioles.
Stud
Lane Thomas, Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles, $5,000 – Thomas is one of baseball’s best platoon bats and he’ll get to show that skill set off to his new teammates on Thursday night. In 101 plate appearances against southpaws in 2024, Thomas is slashing .322/.406/.506 with a 157 wRC+. His value doesn’t stop after he’s left the batter’s box, either. Thomas has 28 stolen bases this season — the third-most in MLB.
Value
Hunter Renfroe, Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, $3,600 – Quietly, Renfroe has turned his season around the last two months. Dating back to June 1, the veteran outfielder is slashing .311/.394/.555 with seven home runs and a 162 wRC+. Considering how poorly Montero’s pitched and how inexpensive Renfroe’s price tag is, there’s a case to be made that the 32-year-old is one of this slate’s top bats.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
