Was yesterday fun, or what? We got a bunch of trades — including a couple head-scratchers — which is really all you can ask for as a baseball fan. Now that the dust has settled, we’re back in the MLB betting kitchen, cooking up some wagers for tonight’s small slate.
Here’s what I’m looking at on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Clayton Kershaw Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Kershaw only threw 72 pitches in his first start of the season last week against the Giants. You know what else he did? He managed an eye-popping 19.4% swinging strike rate and stuck out six of the 20 batters he faced because he’s Clayton freakin’ Kershaw. The left-hander turned 36-years-old earlier this year, but until proven otherwise, I will continue to believe in a pitcher who might just be the greatest of his generation.
It’s really not like you have to believe all that much, either. At least not tonight. It stands to reason that Kershaw’s pitch count will move up to around 80 in his second outing off the IL. That likely means he at least pitches into the fifth inning. Just last season, Kershaw started 24 games for the Dodgers. He struck out at least four opponents in 21 of those opportunities. Yes, the Padres own the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate across the past two weeks (18.8%), yet that still means they register a strikeout in one of every five plate appearances. I don’t think we’ll have to sweat this prop for very long.
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Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels
Zach Neto Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110)
There haven’t been a lot of bright spots this season for the Angels, but the development of 2022 first-round pick Zach Neto is certainly on that short list. The 23-year-old has been solid with his glove at shortstop since making his debut in 2023, but this year it’s been Neto’s bat that has been a delightful surprise. In 388 plate appearances, the sophomore is hitting .255 with a 108 wRC+. He’s also got an outside shot at joining the 20/20 club, as Neto enters play on Wednesday with 13 home runs and 19 stolen bases. We’re hoping he’ll add some more counting stats this evening in a matchup with Kyle Freeland and the Rockies.
Here’s why I’m confident that will happen. First and foremost, Neto has thrived when getting the opportunity to face LHPs in 2024, as he’s slashing .421/.450/.579 with a 191 wRC+ within the split. Freeland is a southpaw that has somehow managed to pitch to a grotesque 9.96 ERA on the road this season. That’s right. He’s surrendered 31 earned runs in 28.0 innings away from Coors Field. Coming in after Freeland will be a Rockies’ bullpen that has a 5.59 ERA — the highest mark in all of baseball. That was with Jalen Beeks and Nick Mears, too. Arguably the team’s best tandem of relievers. Those two arms were shipped out at the deadline. Needless to say, I think the Angels will have little issue scoring some runs on Wednesday. Expect Neto to be in the middle of it all.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
