This year’s Olympic golf venue is a true gem. Le Golf National is a tightly maintained beauty of a course that weaves its way around numerous high-danger water traps and requires players to hit precision shot after precision shot. There are birdie chances, but also high numbers lurking on every hole for players who hit wayward shots. In terms of how Le Golf National will play, expect something similar to what we see at PGA National (home of the Cognizant Classic) every season, where players will often alternate between lower scores and blowup holes/rounds throughout the week.
For Round 1, we’re not expecting huge winds and there is some rain expected on Wednesday and on Thursday early in the AM, which could soften the greens and make the course more receptive. From a hypothetical standpoint, this should make the course play slightly easier on the first day, and allow for a few extra birdie opportunities per round.
As of writing, the player totals for Round 1 are expecting the course to play relatively tough. The highest birdie total is 4.5, with multiple players also set at 3.5. That’s low for a shorter Par 71 that has three Par 5s that are all reachable in two. Additionally, the Round 1 player totals also have a very low spread, with 68.5 currently the lowest round total and 70.5 the highest.
As much as I’m wary of being too bullish on scoring at such a tough course, I do think Le National will play somewhat easier this season than it did in 2018, for the Ryder Cup, when Europe purposely grew out the rough to counteract the Americans’ power advantage. If that’s the case, these Round 1 totals look mighty conservative and make playing for a lower-scoring opening day look optimal.
With that in mind, here are the plays I’m looking at on DraftKings Pick6 for Round 1 of the Olympics.
Pick 1: Matthew Fitzpatrick Over 11.5 Pars
While he’s not been striking the ball well, Fitzpatrick still ranks 18th in bogey avoidance and 11th in strokes gained putting over the last 24 rounds. He’s not a player I expect to challenge for a medal this week as he’s not hitting the ball close enough to generate a high number of birdie chances, but as a veteran of the European Tour, who has played Le National plenty of times in competition, I expect he’ll be able to grind his way around this course to some decent scores. With Round 1 projecting with potentially softer conditions, the over on 11.5 pars for the Englishman looks like a good target.
Pick 2: Wyndham Clark Over 70.5 Strokes
Clark has been in poor form since missing the cut at the PGA Championship. The 2023 US Open winner has struggled around the greens and with his approaches, and ranks a miserable 46th in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds. Further, he’s missing a ton of fairways (58th in fairways gained) which can lead to big trouble on a course like Le National. It’s possible Clark’s elite putting keeps him in contention this week but with this being his first ever Olympics, and his game nowhere near as sharp as it was in February, he’s one player in the DraftKings Pick6 pool I like fading in Round 1.
Pick 3: Scottie Scheffler Over 4.5 Birdies or Better
I’m not sure how much analysis I need for this pick. Le Golf National sets up as a perfect venue for Scheffler who has already posted two wins at the equally difficult TPC Sawgrass and loves this kind of accuracy-driven venue, where less-than-elite ball-strikers get punished on the regular. Scheffler is coming off a disappointing Open (for him) but still ranks first in SG: Approach, GIRs gained, Fairways Gained, and Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds of play. As long as his putter doesn’t completely self-destruct, he’ll likely find enough birdies on a softer course in Round 1 to hit this over.
Pick 4: Abraham Ancer Over 3.5 Birdies or Better
Ancer is like the dime-store version of Scheffler in many respects. He’s a solid iron player, extremely accurate off the tee (4th in fairways gained), and is likely to put himself in a ton of good positions in Round 1 to chase pins –– on what is likely to be somewhat receptive greens. I think you could make an argument for playing nearly all of the overs on players listed at 3.5 birdies or betters for Round 1 (Grillo, Bezuidenhout, Pavon), but given Ancer’s solid play of late (T16 LIV UK) and how well he sets up for this tight test, his over was the most appealing to me.
Pick 5: Tommy Fleetwood Over 11.5 Pars
Fleetwood is a former winner at Le Golf National (French Open 2017) and also played here as part of the winning Ryder Cup Europe squad in 2018. The Englishman isn’t going to be intimidated by this layout and he comes in ranked 5th in Fairways Gained and 6th in Greens in Regulation Gained over the last 24 rounds. There is always the fear that Fleetwood gets a little too hot with his putter (and starts making too many birdies to hit the over on 11.5 pars) but he’s someone we can generally trust to avoid bogey streaks and has played solid golf all season. A steady opener from Fleetwood is something I like investing in for Round 1.
Pick 6: Collin Morikawa Under 69.5 Strokes
I’m bullish on Morikawa this week. The American is overdue for a big win and has been cooking tee to green all season. He ranks in the top 6 in Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Fairways Gained, and Strokes Gained Approach. Moreover, he was also a part of that 7-man playoff for the bronze medal in Tokyo in 2021 and will have both an experience and motivation edge over a lot of players in this field. His 69.5 total for Round 1 is a full stroke lower than players like Rahm and McIlroy, who he has outperformed at points this year. I have no issues chasing his lower on what will hopefully be somewhat of a tame setup for the first round on Thursday.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of 2 to 6 players and select whether or not you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing between 2-6 players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you can not pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
