The DraftKings Tuesday Slate features some of MLB’s best pitchers. They’re not cheap. Hitter-friendly parks are in play. Bad pitchers are taking the mound. The top bats come at a cost. DraftKings DFS MLB lineups will require fantasy baseball value picks. It’s time to dive into the bargain bin and score some ROI.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Knuckleball [$50K to 1st]
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SP David Festa, Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets, $6,000
This is a bold move. The Mets can hit. The rookie’s debut hasn’t been great. Most of the DFS MLB community will stay away. It’s Festa-vas for the rest of us. Festa is Minnesota’s No. 4 Prospect and No. 56 in MLB. The 6’6” righty throws his fastball in the mid-90s. His slider generates a lot of swing-and-misses and his changeup is rated above average. Festa cruised through the Minors with a high K-Rate and Ground Ball Rate. Everything checks out. He just needs MLB reps to develop like all prospects entering the big league.
On the surface, Festa’s MLB debut looks bad — 8.16 ERA. It’s a little different under the hood. His xFIP is 4.08. That’s not great, but the number suggests something is working. His strikeout rate is 9.4 and his walk rate is 1.9. That’s strong for his first three starts. What has hurt him is the long ball (five home runs in 14.1 innings pitched). The .349 BABIP isn’t helping either. Through three starts, he’s holding hitters to 29.2% Hard Contact. His changeup is generating whiffs. All of his pitches are looking good. The results aren’t bearing out. The xwOBA for his pitches is significantly lower than the wOBA. It’s never comfortable to suggest this, but it’s baseball. And since it is Festa-vas, there must be an airing of grievances. Festa’s lackluster start seems to be nothing more than bad luck. Now to the feats of strength!
1B Juan Yepez, Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,500
Did the Cardinals make a mistake? Yepez was the Cards’ No. 14 Prospect. They released him after two disappointing MLB seasons. The prospect never had troubles in the minors. His OPS is .788 in nine seasons. The Bigs are a different story. He struck out too much and posted a subpar wOBA in his two opportunities in 2022 and 2023. The Nats took a chance on Yepez, and it’s paying off. In little under a month of work, Yepez has a .361 AVG, .222 ISO, .419 wOBA and 173 wRC+. Is it sustainable or a hot start? It’s sustainable. His 14.8% strikeout rate suggests that he has figured something out.
This is a same-handed matchup but Yepez has a .236 ISO, .407 WOBA and 165 wRC+ in 55 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Regression could be coming, but not on Tuesday. SP Ryne Nelson ($6,300) allows a .370 wOBA and 39% Hard Contact to right-handed hitters.
OF MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, $3,000
The Royals 2022 No. 2 Prospect (No. 24 MLB Prospect) was a featured value pick in Monday’s DK Network MLB DFS Targets Article. The matchup was great and Chicago is a park upgrade. He did exactly as expected. Melendez homered and scored 17 fantasy points. The scenario is the same for Tuesday’s slate. Melendez is facing a hitter-friendly pitcher in a hitter-friendly park.
The prospect hasn’t lived up to expectations. Melendez hit 41 home runs in the Minors in 2021. He was promoted in 2022 and owns a .304 wOBA and 91 wRC+ after two and a half Big League seasons. That’s not great for the 25-year-old. What is great is his power. He still has it. Specifically, he crushes right-handed pitching. All 12 of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching (.240 ISO). SP Jonathan Cannon ($6,500) was seemingly rushed to the Big Leagues, but he’s been serviceable for Chicago (4.43 ERA). He’s also serving opposing left-handed batters — .388 wOBA, 1.9HR/9 and a 4.45 xFIP.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Knuckleball [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
