UFC 304 is taking place on Saturday from Manchester, England, and despite the location, the main card will start at its usual time of 10 p.m. ET. The main event is a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. Edwards and Muhammad fought previously in 2021, but an accidental eye poke to Muhammad resulted in a no-contest. The co-main event is an interim heavyweight title fight between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall and Blaydes also fought previously and also had an inconclusive finish, as Aspinall suffered a freak knee injury just 15 seconds into the fight.
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Studs
Muhammad Mokaev ($8,400)
Mokaev is one of the biggest volume grapplers in the UFC. Mokaev has recorded about six takedowns per 15 minutes, an elite rate, and combines his takedown volume with big control time. Mokaev’s control time percentage of 59% ranks seventh best among all active UFC fighters. Because Mokaev’s offensive grappling is so effective, he barely absorbs any strikes, absorbing only 1.3 significant strikes per minute, the fifth lowest rate among all active UFC fighters.
Mokaev’s ability to rack up big grappling volume has contributed to strong fantasy scoring. Mokaev has scored over 100 DraftKings fantasy points in four of his six UFC fights and is averaging 107 DraftKings fantasy points per fight, the highest on the slate. Mokaev enters his matchup against Manel Kape as approximately a -150 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook moneyline, putting him in a good position to get the win on the back of solid grappling volume.
Leon Edwards ($8,800)
In Edwards’ previous fight against Belal Muhammad, Edwards was clearly winning until an accidental eye poke prevented Muhammad from continuing. Edwards had a noticeable speed and power advantage and had Muhammad wobbled at one point after partially landing a head kick. Muhammad was having difficulty dealing with Edwards’ speed advantage and landed only 30% of his significant strike attempts before the fight was stopped.
Edwards looked a tier above Muhammad in terms of skill and athleticism, and he should carry those same advantages into this rematch. Muhammad is very durable and difficult to finish, so Edwards could be in a good position to record a solid fantasy score by out-landing Muhammad over five rounds and winning by decision.
Value Play
Curtis Blaydes ($6,800)
Blaydes is one of the best volume wrestlers in the history of the heavyweight division. Blaydes has recorded 62 total takedowns in the UFC, by far the most in the history of the heavyweight division. Blaydes is an efficient finisher of takedowns, finishing 54% of his takedown attempts, the seventh-best rate in the history of the heavyweight division. Blaydes also leads the heavyweight division in total control time, and his control time percentage of 49% ranks second among active heavyweights.
Blaydes is obviously a risky fantasy play for a few reasons. The most obvious one is that he has a very difficult matchup against Tom Aspinall, and Blaydes is a big underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook at about +300 on the moneyline. Blaydes also often lacks quality fight IQ and does not always fight to his strengths, which can result in him underperforming. However, if Blaydes elects to use his grappling against Aspinall, he has a legitimate path to scoring fantasy points. Aspinall is a very solid grappler but Aspinall’s primary grappling background is in jiu-jitsu, not wrestling. The heavyweight division also features volatility because of the mass and force behind the strikes, which can help increase the chances of a big upset.
Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $750K UFC 304 Special [$200K to 1st]
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
