UFC 304 is taking place on Saturday from Manchester, England, and the card is headlined by two title fights. The main event is a welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. Edwards and Muhammad previously fought in 2021, but an accidental eye poke resulted in a no-contest. The co-main event is an interim heavyweight title fight between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall and Blaydes also fought previously and also had an inconclusive finish, as Aspinall injured his knee just 15 seconds into the fight.
A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor had a big UFC win earlier this year, turning $10 into over $6,000 with a UFC 301 Parlay Bet featuring the following picks:
- Michel Pereira To Win By Submission
- Anthony Smith To Win By Submission
- Jose Aldo To Win By Decision
- Alexandre Pantoja To Win By Decision
As a result of all of these outcomes hitting in the Parlay Bet, the UFC bettor took home $6,075.
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UFC 304 Picks
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2
Same Game Parlay (SGP): 2 Picks (-130)
- Leon Edwards Moneyline (3 Way)
- Over 2.5 Total Rounds
Edwards and Muhammad previously fought in March 2021 at the UFC APEX during the pandemic. In that fight, Edwards was clearly getting the better of Muhammad until an accidental eye poke early in Round 2 prevented Muhammad from continuing. The fight was officially ruled a no-contest. Prior to the fight being stopped, Muhammad was having difficulty landing cleanly on Edwards, landing just eight of 26 significant strike attempts. Muhammad was having trouble finding his range and threw many of his strike attempts from outside his boxing range, connecting with air rather than connecting with Edwards. Edwards had a noticeable speed and power advantage and partially landed a head kick that wobbled Muhammad. Edwards appeared to be on his way to a decisive win until the eye poke.
It’s very possible we will see a similar theme in the rematch. Edwards’ overall skill appears to be a tier above Muhammad’s. This fight is also a good candidate to be prolonged. Muhammad is very durable and has only been finished once in his MMA career. Muhammad is prone to lengthy fights that go to decision—12 of his last 14 fights have gone the distance (excluding the NC). Edwards is also not a big finisher. Edwards has gone to decision in six of his last seven fights (excluding the NC). Edwards is primed to be in a good position to beat Muhammad using his speed, power and skill advantage in a fight that goes past 2.5 rounds, and pairing the Edwards moneyline with over 2.5 rounds improves the odds from approximately -250 to -130. Edwards to win by decision (+100) is also a bet worth considering.
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes 2
Over 0.5 Curtis Blaydes Total Takedowns Landed (-135)
Blaydes is one of the better volume wrestlers in the history of the heavyweight division. Blaydes has recorded 62 total takedowns in the UFC, by far the most in the history of the heavyweight division. Blaydes is an efficient finisher of takedowns, finishing 54% of his takedown attempts, the seventh-best rate in the history of the heavyweight division. Blaydes also leads the heavyweight division in total control time and ranks in the top six in control time percentage.
It’s risky to back Blaydes because he often lacks quality fight IQ and does not always fight to his best strengths. However, if Blaydes elects to use his grappling against Aspinall, he has a legitimate path to landing at least one takedown. Aspinall is a very solid grappler but Aspinall’s primary grappling background is in jiu-jitsu, not wrestling. Aspinall has also not faced much offensive grappling from opponents in the UFC, seeing just two total takedown attempts by opponents through eight UFC fights. If Blaydes is going to pull off an upset, he likely has to blend in offensive wrestling to try to wear Aspinall down and get Aspinall thinking about defending the takedown, which could open up opportunities to land strikes to the head.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
