It’s an all-day baseball affair on this Wednesday, with a full-slate of action in both the afternoon and the evening. For the purposes of this article, we’ll be focusing on tonight’s action on the diamond. Why? Because I slept in. That’s why.
Here are a couple of my favorite bets.
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
Under 8.5 (-102)
Look, I’m not going to sit here and try and tell you that the pitching matchup in this contest is a clash between aces. However, I feel much different about both Matt Waldron and Mitchell Parker than I did back in April. In particular, Waldron has been one of the best pitchers in baseball across the past 10 weeks. Dating back to May 11, the knuckleballer has taken the mound 13 times for the Padres. In those 78.2 innings, Waldron has managed to maintain a 2.63 ERA with a 3.39 FIP. He doesn’t walk anyone. He mostly keeps the ball in the ball in the park. He’s exactly what you’re looking for in a former 18th round pick.
Parker hasn’t been quite as strong — his final outing before the All-Star break was a train wreck — yet before that awful start, the left-hander was in possession of a 3.44 ERA and 3.88 FIP across 91.2 innings of work. Heck, the rookie’s only conceded more than three earned runs in three of his 17 games in 2024. Meanwhile, San Diego is in a slump at the plate. The Padres enter Wednesday ranking 25th in wOBA (.291) and 27th in ISO (.132) in the month of July. Also, for the season as a whole, San Diego has been much better against RHPs than LHPs. The Padres sport an impressive 115 wRC+ versus righties — the second-best mark in the National League. In matchups with southpaws? That figure drops to a pedestrian 99 wRC+. I’d expect Parker to put together a quality appearance and keep this tilt low scoring.
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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
While you’ll often have to play it safe with a pitcher coming off the IL, I think special circumstances are in order for Glasnow. Though the Dodgers’ ace hasn’t started a game since July 5, Glasnow’s recent break seemed more like a preventative measure than an actual ailment. It’s a tactic Los Angeles has used with its starting pitchers more than a couple times in the past few seasons. I wouldn’t be too concerned with a pitch count.
Once that’s out of the way, this prop is pretty easy to assess. Glasnow carries the league’s second-highest strikeout rate at 33.6%. He sits fifth in baseball in total strikeouts (143), trailing only Dylan Cease, Tarik Skubal, Cole Ragans and Garrett Crochet. He’s matched or exceeded seven strikeouts in 11 of his last 13 outings. With the Giants sitting fourth in MLB in strikeout rate since July 1 (26.2%), I can’t see a reason why Glasnow doesn’t make that 12 of his last 14.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
