Set that alarm clock, people. We’ve got an extra early MLB featured slate on Thursday, with the Padres and Nationals kicking things off just past noon on the east coast. My biggest sympathies to those in San Diego wanting to watch a little mid-week baseball without sleep in their eyes.
Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
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PITCHER
Stud
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, $9,000 – This is the most expensive Bradley’s been this season, but it’s hard to argue with his recent results. The RHP has exceeded 28.0 FPTS in three of his last four starts and, since June 8, Bradley has registered an astonishing 0.92 ERA with a 30.5% strikeout rate. He’s simply been one of the best arms in the sport. I’d expect that trend to continue in a matchup with the Blue Jays. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,000) is red-hot, yet Toronto has been underwhelming with the bats all year long. Currently, the team sits 18th in wRC+ (97) and 24th in ISO (.142).
Value
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers, $7,800 – I’ll be honest, the pitching options sort of fall off a cliff below $8K on this slate. Still, if you don’t want to pair Bradley with Max Scherzer ($8,600) or Logan Webb ($8,100), Williams at least possesses some upside. It’s been a mixed bag for the RHP since coming off the IL, but Williams’ best outing in 2024 was against this same Tigers lineup. On July 8, Williams tossed 5.1 scoreless innings and struck out five in Detroit. There isn’t any issues with the 24-year-old’s velocity and, considering he posted a 12.1% swinging strike rate in 2023, I anticipate Williams’ strikeout totals to be back to normal soon.
INFIELD
Stud
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers, $6,100 – With Reese Olson (shoulder) on the IL, the Tigers will have to turn to Kenta Maeda ($5,500) on Thursday. That’s less than ideal. Maeda has been roughed up in 2024, pitching to an ugly 7.07 ERA and surrendering 2.02 opponent home runs per nine. Ramirez has actually been far better versus left-handed pitching this season, but the switch-hitter won’t need a platoon advantage in this spot.
Stud
Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, $4,000 – O’Hearn continues to be one of the best values available. The veteran has crushed right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .282/.354/.488 slash line with a 138 wRC+. As such, O’Hearn usually bats clean-up for the Orioles when they happen to be facing a righty. On Thursday, it’s Roddery Munoz ($6,200), who has allowed opposing LHBs to combine for a .677 slugging percentage. Obviously use Gunnar Henderson ($6,300) if you can afford him, but O’Hearn provides similar upside at a fraction of the cost.
Value
Donovan Solano, San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, $3,100 – Solano doesn’t start every game the Padres play against LHPs, but he probably should. In 75 plate appearances versus southpaws in 2024, the 36-year-old is hitting .303 with a 143 wRC+. With an early start on a get-away day, I’m going to assume Solano gets in the lineup. If that ends up being the case, he’s an amazing value in a matchup with Patrick Corbin ($6,500). The LHP’s 6.03 xERA is bay far the highest qualified mark in baseball. At this point, you know the drill.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, $4,600 – Despite being named an All-Star, Profar remains underpriced on these slates. I’m not complaining. The switch-hitting outfielder has been at his best as a right-handed hitter in 2024, slashing .340/.426/.547 with a 180 wRC+ in his 122 plate appearances within the split. As mentioned above, Corbin might be struggling more than any lefty in baseball. It’s a perfect spot.
Stud
Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, $4,500 – Another All-Star priced in the mid-tier. Ramos has been a machine against left-handed pitching so far this season, hitting .407 with a .407 ISO within the split. Heck, among qualified players, only Aaron Judge and J.D. Martinez have a higher expected wOBA versus LHPs than Ramos’ mark of .478. Pretty good company. None of this is meant as disrespect to Clayton Kershaw ($8,400), I’m just not sure what to expect in the 36-year-old’s first MLB start in eight months.
Value
Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers, $3,300 – Noel had shown plus-power potential throughout the minor leagues and that ability has certainly flashed in his brief time with the Guardians. In 48 plate appearances, Noel has five home runs. That translates to a .395 ISO and a 164 wRC+. He’ll assuredly be swinging for the fences against the aforementioned Maeda.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
