One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:
SYSTEM: Over on total when home favorite is coming off a win
Looking at this system’s overall performance, it hasn’t been one that’s deserved a whole lot of attention. That is, until now.
Over the last 30 days, this play has experienced a specific spike, going 68-50-3.
Now, that number has taken a hit coming out of the break, going 8-9. But a dip over a few days doesn’t mean this trend is set to fully regress again.
Eight games fit this system on Tuesday:
- PIT vs. STL
- WSH vs. SD
- NYY vs. NYM
- TOR vs. TB
- TEX vs. CWS
- CHC vs. MIL
- KC vs. ARI
- LAD vs. SF
Of this group, only the Pirates, Blue Jays and Dodgers have seen the over hit at least 55% of the time in this setting. Pittsburgh has Paul Skenes on the mound, so hunting the over in that one seems a bit aggressive. Between the Blue Jays and Dodgers, Toronto has a more favorable matchup on the mound for the over.
Jose Berrios was struggling mightily before the break. Over his last six starts, his ERA ballooned from 2.93 to 4.01. His FIP didn’t jump quite as much, going from 4.57 to 5.11, but even that first number illustrates why hitters are starting to catch up to Berrios. During that six-game stretch, not a single Blue Jays game total never went under nine runs.
Shawn Armstrong won’t have as much of an impact as Berrios, given the Tampa right-hander is only working as the opener. However, there has been a trend in games he’s opened this season. Armstrong has opened five games in 2024. The lowest game total in any of those games was nine runs.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JULY 23
TOR-TB over 8.5 runs -118
SYSTEM: NRFI after favorite did not play the previous day
This has been a quality play all season, but it’s also been trending upward over the last 30 days. Throughout 2024, this play has hit 60.24% of the time (150-99). Over the last 30 days, it’s 37-20 (64.91%). Coming out of the break, specifically, NRFI is 12-4 in this setting.
Three games fit this system on Tuesday:
- BAL @ MIA
- WSH vs. SD
- TOR vs. TB
A couple of these games also fit the game total over system highlighted above. Of course, a scoreless opening frame doesn’t guarantee a low-scoring game. Still, Same Game Parlaying these two systems may not be the move.
As such, we’ll stay away from TOR-TB and go with WSH-SD. The Nationals have yet to name a starter, but that’s no problem here. With the help of the NRFI/YRFI tool in the Stats Hub, we see that they’re the best team to NRFI this season at 67-33. They’re a smidge better at home, entering Tuesday 33-14 to the play at Nationals park.
Now, San Diego is one of the worst teams to NRFI at 50-52. However, they’ve seen NRFI hit the last three games. More importantly, road underdogs that didn’t play the previous day are 83-55 to NRFI this season.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JULY 23
WSH-SD NRFI
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
