2024 NFL training camp is starting in earnest and it’s time to update some fantasy football rankings. For this installment we’ll take a look at probably the toughest position to rank, the running backs. The saying that “RBs don’t matter” is just a short-hand to remind us they do matter, but in a different way than they used to in the NLF.
You’ve heard it before, but there’s no doubt that the running back position has changed in the NFL. You can see that easily in their salaries and touches. More money has been funneled to the quarterbacks, linemen and wide receivers as offenses have moved even further toward the pass. Of course, defenses are learning and have limited big play passing offenses of late, but I don’t see the league now moving back to the bell-cow back in earnest.
So, running backs will remain more apt to be injured, split time, or lose touches to a backup compared to wide receivers. That means to be safe, we want those consistent receivers early in drafts and to be a bit more picky with our running backs early on and then default to the position late in drafts.
Backs I like more than current ADP
James Conner, Cardinals — Conner is the starter in Arizona and will have a healthy Kyler Murray to begin the season. He’s coming off the best season of his career, and lead the league in 20 yard rushing plays. So, despite turning 29, he still has the juice and will be on a team that should be much better offensively, leading to more scoring opportunities. Sure, Trey Benson is in the wings, but this is Conner’s job while healthy.
Joe Mixon, Texans — Mixon isn’t going to have a ton of upside in the Texans offense as far as receptions, but he is going to have light boxes and scoring opportunities with C.J. Stroud throwing to one of, if not the best, receiving groups in the league. He’s also going late enough that you can build a strong base of top-tier wide receivers before drafting him. He’s one of the safer backs at a good price this season.
Jonathan Brooks, Panthers — Brooks is coming off an ACL tear he suffered in November of last season. The good news is that it was a clean tear, giving him a good chance to be ready nine-months later when the season starts. I am fearful of this pick due to the injury, but if things go well, Brooks will be in a great spot as the lead back in an offense that helped a less-talented Rachaad White to a huge 2023 fantasy season. Dave Canales has helped offenses wherever he’s ended up and Brooks could be in store for a surprise year from the bottom-dwelling Panthers.
Tyjae Spears, Titans — Spears showed well last season as he took away touches from Derrick Henry, but the team brought in Tony Pollard to block Spears. The good news is that Spears and Pollard are very similar and whoever plays better should end up winning the majority of snaps as the season goes on. It will still be a split backfield, but we don’t need a Pollard injury to make Spears a flex play from day 1.
Nick Chubb, Browns — Chubb’s knee injury was worse than Brooks’ and there’s plenty of reason to worry about his ability to come back and dominate. I get it, and being cautious is smart. But, I also don’t see any of the current Browns running backs playing well enough to keep even a “not-as-good-as-before” Chubb off the field. And to be fair, a not as good Chubb could still be very good. Just look at what an outlier he has been and this comes after a college knee injury as well —
Missed tackles forced vs Yards after contact per attempt, RBs since 2022. pic.twitter.com/V77qXMabK1
— Football Insights (@fball_insights) March 7, 2024
Maybe this is the end for Chubb and he fades away, but I’ll give him a chance to prove himself this year when I can get him as the RB40, after guys like Gus Edwards and Jerome Ford.
2024 Fantasy football rankings: Top 125 Half-PPR running backs
ADP – Average Draft Position