The NBA Finals wrapped up just over a month ago, but we’re already looking ahead to next season.
NBA win total lines are LIVE on DraftKings Sportsbook along with a bunch of other futures markets. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be breaking down my favorite over/under picks for a variety of teams around the association.
Without further ado, let’s dive into my best bet for the Houston Rockets.
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Houston Rockets: OVER 42.5 Regular Season Wins (-120)
This is my single favorite win total bet for the 2024-25 NBA season.
Looking back to last offseason, I was all over the Oklahoma City Thunder to take a huge leap in the 2023-24 campaign:
As it turns out, I was actually underselling what the Thunder were capable of, as they clinched the top seed in the West at 57-25. Let’s break down what made them capable of taking such a leap.
Continuity among key players played a huge role in their success, along with the addition of one major piece in Chet Holmgren. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams had a full year of experience playing together and were able to build off of that. Another massive factor was elite coaching from Mark Daigneault, who established himself as one of the best in the league at his job and rightfully earned Coach of the Year. Oklahoma City’s roster also boasted a bunch of role players who were comfortable producing with a smaller usage rate.
Obviously, there won’t be a repeat of what the Thunder pulled off every season, and I’m not expecting a 57-win performance from the Rockets… but they’re going to be good.
Very, very good.
Top to bottom, this is one of the most talented rosters in the NBA. Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Amen Thompson alone create a dangerous backcourt presence. Now, throw No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard into the equation and you’re looking at a myriad of fantastic on-court combinations.
The wing depth leaves a little to be desired, but there are still some strong options between Dillon Brooks, Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason, and others.
Then, we jump right back up into the elite tier with Houston’s frontcourt, which boasts Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. Smith played incredibly well as a stretch five in Sengun’s absence at the conclusion of last season, which led some people to throw around hypothetical trades for the 6’11 big man.
That would be a huge mistake. At 21 years old, Sengun has established himself as one of the best centers in the league, averaging 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and five assists per game last year. He’s someone you want to build around WITH Smith in the frontcourt, not break them up. Let’s not forget about Steven Adams either, who is finally healthy and should give Houston legitimate rotational minutes off the bench to bolster their defensive paint presence.
From a coaching perspective, Ime Udoka is one of the best in the business. The Rockets will have enough offensive firepower to outscore anyone, but defensively is where they’ll need help, and that’s Udoka’s forte.
Looking at the landscape of the Western Conference heading into this season, I truly believe a top six seed is attainable for the Rockets. If that’s the case, they should cruise past 43 wins.
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That’s my favorite NBA futures bet for the Houston Rockets! Stay tuned for more picks over the coming weeks.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
