The first half of the 2024 MLB season is in the books. We have made it through the All-Star game, and teams are off until Friday, July 19, when the second half of the season begins. A lot has changed since late March, especially regarding odds for the 2024 player awards.
Some critical injuries and surprise performances have drastically shifted the odds around, so let’s look at how things stand heading into the second half of the 2024 season and which players have the best odds of taking home one of the player awards at the end of the year.
2024 MLB Awards
American League
Rookie of the Year
Favorite at the start of the season: Wyatt Langford, +225
Wyatt Langford +125
Luis Gil +225
Colton Cowser +550
Ceddanne Rafaela +800
Wilyer Abreu +1100
I talked about changes in odds over the past four and a half months, but Langford retains his spot with the best odds to be named the AL Rookie of the Year. He’s played in 72 games this season and is hitting .254 with five home runs and 70 RBI. Langford benefits from having reliable bats around him and should be a solid contributor for the rest of the season.
Evan Carter and Colt Keith were in the top five at the start of the season and have fallen out, but New York Yankees starter Luis Gil has seen his odds rise to second-best behind Langford. The rookie has 10 wins at the break and is sporting a 3.17 ERA. Even if that ERA doesn’t sound like he would be in contention for Rookie of the Year, it is the 18th-best in the MLB and the highest among qualified rookies. He has the 17th-most strikeouts in the league and is tied for the fifth-most wins.
Gil benefits from starting for the Yankees and their power-heavy lineup. He rarely lacks run support and can afford a bad outing on the mound here and there. The All-Star break may have come at the perfect time, and Gil is right behind Langford in odds with a better chance to finish strong and win the award.
Best bet: Luis Gil +225
Cy Young
Favorite at the start of the season: Corbin Burns, +700
Tarik Skubal -130
Corbin Burnes +225
Logan Gilbert +1200
Seth Lugo +1400
Garrett Crochet +2200
The Tigers were my preseason pick to win the AL Central, and while that doesn’t look likely — 12 games back of the Cleveland Guardians — the thought that Skubal would bring them success by taking a step forward this season was correct. He has pitched in 19 games and has a 10-3 record with a 2.41 ERA. Skubal is tied for the fifth-most wins in the MLB — with Gil — and has the second-lowest ERA among qualified starters in the league. He has the lowest ERA and the third most strikeouts (140) in the American League. Run support is a big concern the rest of the way, but the southpaw has been dominant this season.
Burnes’ odds have greatly improved, but he has the second-best odds of winning the award. He won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021 and would become just the seventh pitcher in baseball history to win a Cy Young Award in both leagues. Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.43 ERA and has a better chance of consistent run support than Skubal. For now, the Detroit starter has a better ERA and 30 more strikeouts, which is where the separation comes in. Skubal’s name is being tossed around in trade chatter, and that shake-up and landing spot could drastically affect his odds and chances.
Best bet: Tarik Skubal -130
MVP
Favorite at the start of the season: Aaron Judge, +550
Aaron Judge -310
Gunnar Henderson +250
Juan Soto +1500
Bobby Witt Jr. +2000
Jose Ramirez +3000
You would have laughed in my face if I had told you at the beginning of May that Judge would be the leader for the AL MVP Award at the All-Star break and this is the difference two months can make. Heading into May 3rd, Judge was slashing .197/.331/.393 with six home runs and 17 RBI. The slugger was able to shake off his slump and proceeded to hit 14 home runs in the rest of May, added 11 in June and knocked three more in July before the All-Star break. Now, Judge is slashing .306/.433/.679 with 34 home runs and 85 RBI.
Henderson and Witt are interesting because they have crushed the baseball in the first half, and both competed in the Home Run Derby. Some players have de-railed their momentum in the season from competing, and it takes them some time to get back into the groove they once had. Henderson has the third-most home runs in the league, and if Judge goes back to his first month slump, it could be enough for the Baltimore Oriole to surpass him if he doesn’t take that step back.
Best bet: Aaron Judge -310
Reliever of the Year
Favorite at the start of the season: Josh Hader, +550
Emmanuel Clase -650
Mason Miller +500
Clay Holmes +2800
Craig Kimbrel +5000
Andres Munoz +5000
When Hader signed with the Houston Astros, it was assumed he would run away with the Reliever of the Year Award. The Astros were coming off a 90-72 season and were able to retain most of their pieces to be the AL West favorites. Houston started off the season horribly and was 7-18 at one point. The Astros have battled back into contention, but Hader hasn’t experienced the same turnaround. He heads into the second half with a 3-5 record, a 3.86 ERA and a blown save.
While Hader has faltered, Clase improved further than we thought he would. The fireballer has been absolutely dominating hitters. The Cleveland Guardians closer has a 4-1 record with a 0.81 ERA in 44.1 innings pitched. Clase has blown three saves but has converted 29 others with 39 strikeouts. He’s only allowed four earned runs all season and has a 2.3 WAR. Barring a monumental falloff, Clase should win this award this year.
Best bet: Emmanuel Clase -650
National League
Rookie of the Year
Favorite at the start of the season: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, +260
Paul Skenes -1000
Jackson Merrill +500
Shota Imanaga +2000
Joey Ortiz +2200
Michael Busch +2500
Yamamoto was off to a rough start, and reports suggested that he struggled to grip the MLB baseball compared to the NPB version. He was injured and has fallen out of the top five for odds. Skenes wasn’t called up until mid-May, but that was still incredibly fast, given that he was the No. 1 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft last July. The 22-year-old dominated the minors, but all of his outings were short, so there was some concern that he wouldn’t be able to pitch deep into games.
Skenes is going into the second half of the season with a 6-0 record and a 1.90 ERA. He has dominated in a small sample size and was named the National League starter in this year’s All-Star Game. Skenes has struck out 89 batters in just 66.1 innings of work. There is concern that since the 48-48 Pittsburgh Pirates may not be in contention down the stretch, they could shut down Skenes early to preserve his arm. If that happens, it could be tough for him to win the Award. For now, though, his starts are must-watch, and even if he takes a step back and batters start figuring him out more, he should still be the front-runner for the award.
Best bet: Paul Skenes -1000
Cy Young
Favorite at the start of the season: Spencer Strider, +450
Chris Sale +140
Zack Wheeler +150
Paul Skenes +500
Ranger Suarez +1500
Logan Webb +2200
Spencer Strider blew out his elbow in just his second start this season, and it felt like the race for the Cy Young Award was wide open. Early on, Philadelphia Phillies pitchers Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez dominated with the best odds, but there has been a recent shake-up. Strider’s teammate, Chris Sale, has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young Award with the narrowest edge over Wheeler.
Sale has an MLB-best 13 wins heading into the break with a 2.70 ERA. The lefty has struck out 140 batters in 110 innings and sports a 0.95 WHIP. Wheeler has the exact same ERA but has a 10-4 record with 126 punchouts in 116.2 innings. It’s a close race because Wheeler has a much better chance of picking up wins with the Phillies lineup, but Sale’s performance on the mound has forced his way to the top.
It will be a battle that comes down to the wire, but it’s time to have an exciting conversation. Yes, Sale and Wheeler are putting up crazy numbers, but let’s say that Skenes doesn’t get shut down and continues his dominance the rest of the way. If he ends with 12+ wins, with a sub 2.0 ERA and is among league leaders in strikeouts? It’s going to be very tough not giving him the award.
Best bet: Paul Skenes +500
MVP
Favorite at the start of the season: Ronald Acuna Jr., +500
Shohei Ohtani -290
Bryce Harper +600
Freddie Freeman +1200
Marcell Ozuna +2500
Ketel Marte +2500
Like Strider, Acuna suffered a season-ending injury early on in the season. The Atlanta Braves outfielder tore his ACL running the bases and won’t return until 2025. The question then became whether or not Ohtani could put up enough stats at the plate to offset his not having his pitching stats, which usually helped cement him at the forefront of the yearly MVP conversation.
Ohtani is slashing .316/.400/.635 in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. His batting average is the fourth-highest in the MLB and second-highest in the NL, behind only Christian Yelich. The DH has 29 home runs (most in NL, second in MLB) and 69 RBI while adding 23 stolen bases (fourth-most in NL).
Harper has the second-best odds, but his numbers currently aren’t measuring up to Ohtani. He’s slashing .301/.403/.579 with 21 home runs and 61 RBI. The Philadelphia Phillies first baseman has played in 81 games and missed some time with an injury. Harper can stay consistent for the remainder of the year, but at this point, he would need an Ohtani injury to overtake him.
Best bet: Shohei Ohtani -290
Reliever of the Year
Favorite at the start of the season: Edwin Diaz +300
Ryan Helsley -125
Robert Suarez +350
Kyle Finnegan +900
Raisel Iglesias +1200
Jeff Hoffman +1700
I’ve said it before, and I will repeat it: I need a 30 for 30 done on the rise and immediate fall of Diaz. He saved 32 games in 2022, blew out his knee in the World Baseball Classic which caused him to miss the entire 2023 season, and now can’t hold onto the closer role for the New York Mets. He’s pitched in 27 games this season and has a 3-1 record with a 4.05 ERA. Diaz has only 10 saves but has blown five other games in his fall from grace.
Helsley wasn’t in the top five for odds at the start of the season but has pitched his way there. He leads the league with 32 saves and is technically on pace to break Mariano Rivera’s single-season 62-save record. Helsley is 3-3 with a 2.36 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 42 innings. He has blown two saves but has a 10.3 K/9. I don’t have much faith in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, but Helsley has a great chance of winning the award as long as he doesn’t get the yips.
Best bet: Ryan Helsley -125