Football remains a violent sport for the time being and that means injuries will remain a huge part of the game and a huge part of playing the game behind the game, fantasy football. As we head into the 2024 season, there will be a few players who might end up on the PUP list to start the season, while others will look to get 100% during training camp and ready to go for Week 1.
One player who could miss time to start the season is Cleveland Browns stud running back Nick Chubb, who injured his knee last year.
Nick Chubb, Injury Update
Chubb injured his knee early on in the 2023 season, but it was a significant injury as he tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee in Week 2, requiring separate surgeries to repair each. He also needed repairs to the meniscus and medial capsule. The injuries were to the same knee in which he tore his ACL back in 2015 in college.
At this point in the off-season it is impossible to know when Chubb will return and if he’ll be back to his old self. The good news is that his knee is now able to support him squatting nearly 600 pounds.
Of course, this video, though promising, doesn’t mean all that much in the grand scheme. We know a player of Chubb’s caliber will need to return with the same elite physical ability that helped him to 6,511 rushing yards, 48 rushing touchdowns and a great 5.3 yards per carry in his six year career. We also would need to see his lateral ability more than strength before making better predictions based on limited information. But, there have been positive updates before this video.
Chubb’s personal running backs coach Brad Lester said, “I will honestly say I have never seen anyone recover as fast as he has so far. After certain movements, I was kind of like, ‘How do you feel?’ And he’d say, ‘I was fine.’ I was like, ‘Man, this is pretty impressive.’ To be seven months out and he didn’t have any pains in the workout,” per Mary Kay Cabot.
Last season we saw Broncos RB Javonte Williams return quicker from a knee injury than expected, but the results weren’t good. Williams had his worst season, averaging under four-yards per carry and only rushing for 774 yards. The excitement of a player beating his recovery time needs to tempered by all that needs to go right for a back to return to elite status quickly. There are exceptions, notably Adrian Peterson, who tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee on Dec. 24, 2011 (Week 16). Eight months and 16 days later Peterson touched the ball 18 times for 85 yards and scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and went on to have his best season ever, going over 2,000 yards on the ground for six-yards per carry, both career highs.
Chubb is older than Peterson was when he was injured by a little over a year and Peterson is still an outlier in every sense of the word. The question comes down to if Chubb is also an outlier.
Chubb’s ADP
In fantasy football, what really matters is the cost to roster a player and the odds that player can contribute more than his cost. At this point in the off-season I like to look at best ball average draft position (ADP), which has a lot of fantasy footballers putting down real money to draft teams.
Currently, Chubb’s ADP is — running back (41), Overall (126).
So, we see that Chubb’s injury is being baked into his best ball ADP at this point. That ADP will likely move as news comes out about whether he will be put on the PUP list for training camp and then if he will be put on the regular season PUP list. I expect, even if he appears to be fully back, the team will play it safe early on and put him on the list, likely keeping him out the first four weeks. With the season now at 17 games, playing it safe is usually going to be the best course of action.
If Chubb does end up ready to go Week 1, you will see his ADP shoot up quickly. Timing your fantasy pick of Chubb will be key. If he lands on the PUP list, his ADP will drop and you’d be better off waiting for that announcement, while if the opposite happens, getting him before an announcement is the way to go.
Final thoughts
This remains a fluid situation and will be one for a while. I’m not going to bet on a repeat of Peterson’s huge post-injury season, but I’m also not willing to toss Chubb to the wayside. Backup Jerome Ford would be the likely starter while Chubb is out and he didn’t prove himself last season. Chubb will be given a chance to prove himself at some point this season and he’s the type of player who could beat the odds.