The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (PGA)
The Field
The field for The Open Championship consists of approximately 158 golfers and will feature a cutline where the top 70 and ties will get to play the weekend after Friday’s round. The player pool has a lot of international qualifiers attached to it but still features one of the best fields in all of golf. All of the top 10 players in the OWGR will be in attendance this week, including the No. 1 player in the world Scottie Scheffler (who took last week off) and US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau, who finished T9 on LIV last week.
In addition to those two, we have the past Open winners from 2017-2023 playing with Jordan Spieth, Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry, Brian Harman, Cameron Smith, and Collin Morikawa all in the field. 2016 winner Henrik Stenson is also playing, he triumphed magnificently at Troon that season, beating Phil Mickelson in one of the best heads-up duels we have ever seen at a major.
One of the more exciting features of The Open for DFS is that the salary structure on DraftKings has shifted to where you can now roster players below $6,000. With the unpredictability of links golf and a lot of players in the field who are less well known to the casual DFS player, using one of these sub-$6,000 players could provide huge flexibility in your lineups; and for that reason, I’ve highlighted a few who could be useful in the sections below.
The Course
Royal Troon —Troon, Scotland
Par 71— 7,383 yards
Royal Troon is a longer Par 71 that sits along the coast of the Firth of Clyde, just South of Glasgow. The venue was last seen hosting the Open in 2016 when Henrick Stenson blitzed the course to the tune of 20 under par for his first and only major win. Stenson and Mickelson made the course look easy that season but, in retrospect, their heroics hid how tough and technical this course actually played. The duo beat the field by 11 strokes that season and if we remove the two men from that event, the winning score would have been just 6 under par, a number that may look solid by the end of four days this season given the current forecast
Troon has been lengthened by about 150 yards or so since 2016 and contains plenty of lengthy Par 4s on the back nine, many of which are likely to play over par for the week. This should add an extra emphasis on approach play that was already evident back in 2016. Additionally, while Troon is a decent length for a Par 71 it’s accuracy off the tee which will be key. The course runs along the sea, a railway line, and gorse bushes and also contains numerous strategically placed pot bunkers on the fairway that are just as penal as any water trap found over in the States.
The venue sets up as a traditional Par 71 and features three par 5s, one of which is set to play well over 600 yards for the week. The par 3s vary in length and the short Par 3 8th hole (the postage stamp) may play as short as 99 yards. However, the smaller greens will make even this short hole play tough and any player who ends up even on the par 3s this week will likely find themselves with a big leg up on the field.
The course starts off with three short par 4s, but the back nine is a virtual minefield of longer, technical par 4s that need to be traversed with caution. The 10th, 11th, and 12th holes all played as the first, second, and third toughest holes of the week and feature tougher tee shots (some blind) and approaches into smaller greens.
It can’t be emphasized enough how important hitting GIR’s and fairways will be this week and Troon has typically produced GIR%’s well under the PGA Tour average. For stats, looking at recent strokes gained approach play is a great place to start, as is strokes gained in windy conditions (see the forecast below). I expect short games to be tested here as well, but without a proper long game, players will have trouble sticking with the pack on this course that rewarded one of the game’s best ball strikers, and long iron player, Henrik Stenson, with a Claret Jug in 2016.
2024 weather outlook: The wind this week looks like it will be “up” for at least the first three days of this event. Gusts on Thursday are set to reach 15-20 mph with winds building slightly as the day progresses. Friday things are set to get wild as gusts are expected to reach 25+ mph in the late morning/early afternoon. Very early or very later tee times may prosper on Friday (if they can catch a calm patch) but as of now, the entire day looks like it will be blustery. We’ll get more of the same on Saturday before Sunday dies down a little. As with any Open, stacking tee times for DFS will be a boom-bust scenario, but the strategy could give you a massive edge if you hit the right side of the draw. As of now, the recommendation would likely be to focus on TH AM / FRI PM players but that could change instantly as we get closer to tee-off.
Recent winners
2023—Brian Harman -13 (over four players -7)
2022—Cameron Smith -20 (over Cameron Young -19)
2021—Collin Morikawa -15 (over Jordan Spieth -13)
2019—Shane Lowry – 15 (over Tommy Fleetwood -9)
2018—Francesco Molinari -8 (over Justin Rose and three others -6)
2017 – Jordan Spieth -12 (over Matt Kuchar -9)
*2016 – Henrik Stenson -20 (over Phil Mickelson -17)
*Held at Royal Troon
Winning Trends
- Seven of the past 12 winners of The Open Championship have been age 35 or older; eight of the past 12 have been age 32 or older.
- Nine of the past 11 winners of The Open Championship had recorded a T20 or better in one of the year’s first two major championships, in the year of their victory. Four of the past six winners had recorded a T11 or better in one of the year’s first three majors.
- 15 of the past 18 winners of The Open Championship had a T9 or better finish at this event in a previous year.
- Five of the past six winners had played in The Open Championship at least four times prior to winning.
Winners Stats
2023 Winner: Brian Harman (13-under par)
2023 lead-in form (T12-T9-T2-T43-MC)
- We don’t have a ton of past data to look back on since The Open doesn’t track Strokes Gained data. That being said, certain trends among winners and high finishers are out there. The past six winners have all ranked 23rd or better in the year of their win in Strokes Gained: Approach, with 2017 winner Jordan Spieth ($9,700) ranking first in this category and 2018 winner Francesco Molinari ($6,300) ranking 10th.
- Brian Harman came in last year having gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts and by all accounts, was one of the best in the field with his irons at Hoylake.
- Links golf often isn’t as much about length off the tee as placement, so emphasizing great iron players this week seems like a solid start. 2021 winner Collin Morikawa ranked top five in Greens hit in 2021 and Cameron Smith ranked fifth in SG: APP stats at this event in 2022.
- The past few Open Championship winners have also emphasized how important scrambling can be, and is, at this event. Shane Lowry ($9,100) led the field in SG: OTT stats at the 2019 Open, but also was second in scrambling for the week. Morikawa was first in scrambling for the week of his win at St. George’s.
- In terms of leadup, the last five winners all came in with signs they were playing well. Each of the last six winners gained 4.0 strokes or more on approach in at least one of their previous five starts before winning this event.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them. This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Robert MacIntyre +3500 and $7,700
Comparables:
Aaron Rai +5500 and $7,300
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
**With the course being played on this week only being used every 10 years or so, we’ll be looking instead at past Open Championship form instead.
1. Rory McIlroy ($11,400; best finishes: win-2014, T2-2018): McIlroy has racked up lots of top finishes at this event over the past five years. The winner of the 2014 Open at Hoylake has six finishes of T5 or better over his past nine Open starts, including a T2 in 2018 and another in 2022. Over 13 career Open Championships, McIlroy has only missed the cut twice and one was at Carnoustie in his first Open in 2007.
2. Jordan Spieth ($7,900; best finishes: win-2017, T2-2015): The 2017 winner of this event has now finished T4 or better at this championship in three of the past eight years and has never missed a cut in 10 Open Championship starts. He is second in strokes gained total stats at this major over the past five seasons.
3. Adam Scott ($6,700; best finishes: second-2012, T3-2013): After a T33 finish last season, Scott has now made the cut in 12 of the past 13 Open Championships — and has four top-10 finishes to his credit over that span. That includes a second-place finish in 2012 when he famously bogeyed the last four holes to lose by a shot. He was T30 at this event in 2016 when he last played at Troon.
4. Tommy Fleetwood ($9,300; best finishes: T2-2019): The Englishman finished second at this major in 2019 and T10 at Hoylake last season. He leads the field in strokes gained total stats at the Open over the last five seasons and is coming off a start in Scotland where he gained over 3.0 strokes OTT and on Approach.
5. Louis Oosthuizen ($6,800; best finishes: win-2010): Oosthuizen dominantly won this event in 2010 at St. Andrews, and also finished T3 in 2021. The veteran South African has looked good on LIV this year but has chosen to skip the last two majors. He grabbed a T4 finish in Spain on the LIV Tour last week.
RECENT FORM
1. Rory McIlroy ($11,400; T4-2nd): McIlroy did little to quell expectations for this week with a T4 in Scotland. He did regress a little with his irons last week but remained sharp OTT and ATG.
2. Aaron Rai ($7,300; T4-T7): Rai has been one of the best golfers in the world over the past two months and booked a ticket to Troon with another big effort last week. He’ll be popular for DFS but is outperforming everywhere right now.
3. SungJae Im ($6,900; T4-T12-T3): Im’s game has really taken off of late. His iron play has taken a huge tick up gaining him over three strokes on approach in each of his last three starts.
4. Tom Kim ($8,300; T15-MC-2nd): Kim shook off an MC at the Rocket Mortgage to post a T15 in Scotland. He’s gaining a lot of strokes OTT but doesn’t have the same upside as other elite players do around the green.
5. Collin Morikawa ($9,900; T4-T13): Morikawa’s T4 last week was his sixth straight top-15 finish. He’s gaining everywhere but just hasn’t been able to find enough birdies on Sunday to close out an event.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: McIlroy and Im a nice duo
It’s a major so there are a lot of cheaper quality players, at levels we often don’t see them at. SungJae Im ($6,900) is one of the most in-form players on the PGA right now and his iron should do him well around Troon’s tougher layout. With Im set at under 7k (perhaps the most mispriced player in the event), pairing him with perennial top 10 finisher Rory McIlroy ($11,400) looks like a solid way to go about starting HU or 50/50 lineups. On top of those two, the prices on Wyndham Clark ($8,000) and Aaron Rai ($7,300) also stick out. Clark has refound his game of late while Rai is a tee-to-green machine who looks primed for another top 20 on this venue.
Tournaments: Matsuyama a potential rebound target
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500) didn’t have a great week at the Scottish Open (MC) but he’s not someone I would write off completely just due to one poor effort. He finished T6 at Pinehurst just a few starts ago and still has one of the best short games in the world. He’s been up and down at this major but, as his T13 at Hoylake last season demonstrated, he’s fully capable of challenging on the links when his game is in shape. Below Matsuyama, we can get as creative as we want this week. If you’re targeting ball strikers, Byeong Hun An ($6,700) sticks out as another potential rebound play. Both Victor Perez ($6,200 – see below) and Guido Miggliozzi ($5,800) have also played solid golf this year and have good long games that allow them to stand out as good, cheaper options.
MY PICK: Patrick Cantlay ($9,100)
I’m about as sick as anyone of backing Cantlay in majors but you can’t overlook the fact that we are still getting a relative discount on him at these big events, compared to his historic prices. He’s a player we have seen go off in these big events as low as +2000, but this week is +4000 in the outright odds on DraftKings, and sitting just above $9,000 in price on DraftKings for DFS as well.
The American has always been at his best on more technical courses where ball control is key, posting his best results at places like TPC Stadium, Hilton Head, and TPC Summerlin. And while he’s never truly challenged at the Open, he’s produced two top 12 finishes in five career starts at this major, where he’s been more reliable than he has at other big events.
History and price aside, his form is also hard to ignore. He’s just two starts removed from posting a T3 at the US Open (in what was his best career effort at a major championship by far) and has now gained strokes across the board in each of his last two starts. I’d love to find some fault here but Cantlay has shown us that he’s got the tools to compete at a technical links venue like Troon and at 32 years of age, fits the profile of an Open Championship winner. With his price remaining depressed since his big week at the US Open, it’s still a great time to buy in on the stoic seven-time PGA winner.
MY SLEEPER: Victor Perez ($6,200)
With a tougher Par 71 and some wind in the forecast, I do think great ball-strikers will eventually rise to the occasion on this course. Perez can be a little up and down with his scoring clubs but there is no denying that he also brings a lot of potential upside due to a very underrated long game. The Frenchman ranks a tidy 21st in strokes gained approach stats over the last 50 rounds and has been in fine form off the tee of late, gaining over two strokes OTT in each of his last three starts.
He’s already recorded two top-five finishes on the year (Canada and Puerto Rico) and is coming off a great week at the Renaissance Club where he gained 6.0 strokes putting on the slower fescue greens, which vaulted him to a T10 finish. On top of having a solid profile for this course, he’s also extremely cheap for DFS at just $6,200. Considering the upside he’s shown us this season and the state of his long game, he makes for a very sensible extreme value target in big fields for anyone looking to build stars and scrub lineups.
Sub $6,000 Hero Play: Matteo Manassero ($5,400)
Manassero has had a resurgent year over in Europe. The once highly touted prospect won early in the season over in South Africa and comes in having posted top-15 finishes in three of his last four starts. He’s not a big hitter but as he demonstrated last week, Manassero’s iron play is world-class when he’s in form. He gained 8.2 strokes on approach alone at the Scottish Open and managed his way to a T15 finish, which belies how good he was playing in some ways.
Certainly, he’ll need the putter and short game to show up this week if he’s to replicate that finish or improve on it, at Troon, but as a veteran of six previous Open Championships (career-best T13 in 2009), he’s certainly capable of rising to that occasion. On top of being a solid punt play for people looking for sub 2% owned play in this sub-$5,500 range, Manassero is also an intriguing top 20 target at big +650 odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Golf Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Semifinal Entry] (PGA)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
